Welsh hopes and qualification stakes in Champions Cup and Challenge Cup
Cardiff Rugby's Alun Lawrence started their key victory over Racing 92 in the Challenge Cup
©Inpho Photography
The final round of the Investec Champions Cup and EPCR Challenge Cup concludes this weekend, with plenty still to play for in both competitions.
From a Welsh perspective, Round Three saw Cardiff as the sole victors, defeating Racing 92 32-13 in the Challenge Cup and qualifying through Pool 3 after the Cheetahs vs Ulster game was postponed, with the Irish side awarded all five points.
Elsewhere, two of the Welsh regions suffered defeats. The Dragons’ qualification hopes took a major hit after conceding 11 tries in a 67-21 loss to Benetton. Meanwhile, despite a narrow 23-19 defeat to Zebre, the Ospreys secured a losing bonus point that ensured their progression from Pool 2.
As for the Scarlets, they struggled, losing 47-38 at home to Section Paloise in the Champions Cup, marking their fifth defeat in their last six competitive games.
So, what is left for the Welsh teams to play for and what are the key permutations that could shape the final round in both tournaments?
Scarlets could go through Europe’s back door for Challenge Cup knockouts
After losing to Pau at Parc y Scarlets last weekend, Dwayne Peel’s side must beat Northampton Saints on Sunday to stand any chance of progressing to the last 16 of the Champions Cup.
Currently, the Llanelli-based side are ahead of the Bulls on points difference, meaning if things stayed as they were, they would enter the Challenge Cup knockout stages.
However, with the South African side heading to France to face Pau on Friday night, the Scarlets could already be eliminated from the Champions Cup by the time they arrive at cinch Stadium at Franklin Gardens.
Their task will become clearer after Friday’s meeting between Pau and the Bulls, but the reality is the Scarlets have only won twice since the end of November, and this week they appointed Nigel Davies as interim director of rugby until the end of the season to oversee Peel.
In terms of the already qualified Saints, they will be keen to finish the pool stages with a win after being comfortably beaten 50-28 in Bordeaux last week, despite an excellent Henry Pollock try in the first half.
They will hope to sneak into the top two places as Pool 4 also features a straight shootout for top spot, as Bristol Bears host Bordeaux-Bègles at Ashton Gate on Sunday.
Elsewhere, Pool 1 could see a three-team fight for two knockout spots. Glasgow Warriors are already safely through, having picked up maximum points from their first three games.
Sale are also through after beating the Sharks in Salford last week, leaving the South African team, Saracens and Toulouse battling for the final two spots.
The Sharks host Clermont on Saturday afternoon, but the French side have been eliminated after losing all three games.
It is unlikely John Plumtree’s men will qualify for the last 16 due to a lower points difference compared to the other teams, but mathematically, they are still in the hunt.
As for Toulouse, they will aim to avoid a third defeat in the competition as they welcome Sale to the south of France.
Saracens face a tough test against Glasgow on Sunday. They may need a point to secure a top-four finish, and if they do qualify, they will pose a stern challenge to any of the top-seeded teams in the knockouts.
Leinster and Harlequins have already qualified from Pool 3, with Quins dominating a reshuffled Stormers 61-10 at the Stoop last Sunday.
John Dobson’s team could secure qualification with a win in Cape Town against Leicester Tigers on Saturday. As for the Gallagher Prem outfit, they will need a victory and a favour from Quins in La Rochelle to progress otherwise they will drop into the Challenge Cup ahead of Bayonne, who have yet to pick up a point.
Finally, Pool 2 is wide open, with all four knockout spots still available. Bath host Edinburgh on Friday night in a top-two clash, and a win for the Challenge Cup holders should see them top the group.
Edinburgh are likely to confirm qualification with two match points, though they may still need other results to go their way.
A Toulon win away at Gloucester should secure their spot in the last 16, but the Cherry and Whites aren't down and out just yet, and they will be hoping the Kingsholm crowd can spur them on to a famous victory.
And despite being bottom, Castres still have a slim chance, needing a victory over Munster to leapfrog the Irish side.
Dragons face a wait as two teams search for home knockouts
Two of the three Welsh teams in the Challenge Cup have already qualified for the knockout stages, but seedings for the Round of 16 are still up for grabs.
A bonus-point win over Racing gave Cardiff a boost, although the postponed Cheetahs vs Ulster game in the Netherlands sealed their qualification, with all four spots in Pool 3 now taken.
Cardiff are in a decent position to lock in a home Round of 16 tie, but head coach Corniel Van Zyl has hinted at making changes ahead of the URC returning next weekend when they host Benetton at the Arms Park.
This week, they travel to Sandy Park to face Exeter Chiefs, who have already qualified and will be seeking a second win in the pool stages.
The Ospreys had plenty of chances to beat Zebre in Parma last Sunday but despite looking strong early on, they were edged out after initially staging a comeback.
They can still top Pool 1, but must defeat Montpellier in Bridgend on Saturday night. The French side are already on maximum points and could become top seeds, while a defeat could drop the Ospreys to fourth if Zebre and Connacht pick up victories.
Also in Pool 1, Georgian side Black Lion have a chance to qualify with a bonus-point win over Zebre. A four-point haul combined with a shock Connacht loss to Montauban could also see them progress.
The one Welsh team yet to qualify in the Challenge Cup are the Dragons, who must beat Newcastle Red Bulls at Rodney Parade on Friday evening.
Filo Tiatia’s side are currently fifth in Pool 2 and could still win but not progress, depending on the Perpignan vs Lions result in France.
A high-scoring draw between those two teams on Saturday could knock the Dragons out due to their poor points difference following last week's heavy defeat to Benetton. However, a victory over the Gallagher Prem side should be enough.
