Super Rugby Round 19 Preview - Who Will Make the Finals?

Super Rugby 2014 is reaching a remarkable climax with a number of teams jostling for top six finals berths. There was one major upset in the previous round with the Sharks losing to the Cheetahs and only one bonus point for teams being within seven points, with two teams losing by eight points, therefore narrowly missing out on crucial bonus points.

Three out of the seven games had margins of 16 points or more, so if you are struggling in the tipping stakes, it could be worth going big with some of your margins! Interestingly, all the home teams won in Round 18, bringing the overall percentage of home teams winning up to 72 percent.

With many of the games now it is a matter of picking on form rather than class.  Some of the teams who are in the bottom half of the table are only hitting their straps now like the Reds, Blues, Cheetahs and Stormers, while other teams higher up the table like the Force, Brumbies, Highlanders and Chiefs have got the speed wobbles. 

How do you pick?  Class or form?  Some other poor teams like the Rebels are struggling.

This 19^th round is the final time we will see nine teams.  This competition is so tough, there are some genuinely strong teams missing out on the finals. 

Who are you picking to make the top six?  See this article which predicts the top six finalists and it looks like three Australian teams will make it, depending on who wins the Blues vs Chiefs game...

 

There are some tough games to pick in the final regular season round of Super Rugby, with six local derbies causing potential banana skins for the better ranked teams. Some of these games will split the tipsters fifty-fifty and therefore it is imperative that you pick the winning team.

The Brumbies return from the bye, while the Hurricanes have the bye this week.  It is hard to know if it is a good thing to have a break when the season is heating up? There will also be some injured players after the test matches with the likes of Stephen Moore and Conrad Smith likely to be on the side-line for some weeks.

Five out of the seven matches in Super Rugby Round 19 affect the outcome, with the Lions vs Cheetahs and Bulls vs Rebels having no impact on the finals.  The Blues vs Chiefs, Brumbies vs Force and Crusaders vs Highlanders impact both teams involved in those matches.

There are some virtual All Blacks, Springboks and Wallabies trials in Super Rugby Round 19 with the Blues hosting the Chiefs in a must win match, while the the Crusaders host the Highlanders in the New Zealand conference.  There is ten points between the top Crusaders and bottom placed Blues, but amazingly all of the New Zealand teams can mathematically make the finals.  The Blues need to thrash the Chiefs and hope that the loser of the Brumbies vs Force game doesn’t get a bonus point.  It will be interesting to see if there are any contrived results, with bonus points potentially enough to help the losers make the finals.

The Australian conference has two epic derby matches too with the Reds hosting the Waratahs and it will be interesting to see if the Waratahs rest players.  All eyes will be on the Brumbies vs Force game which has a major influence on final placings.

There are two South African derbies too, with the resurgent Stormers hosting the Sharks in a match which will dictate if the Sharks have any chance of hosting a Super Rugby final. The Sharks have been disappointing.  The Lions host the Cheetahs in a match for the diehards only with both teams out of contention, but neither team will want to finish bottom of the South African conference. 

In the only non-derby match, the Bulls look set to inflict more pain on the Bulls.

It is interesting seeing how the Waratahs and Sharks are miles ahead of their conference rivals, while the New Zealand conference is far closer.  This shows the amount of depth in New Zealand rugby.

Tipsters need to be careful as there aren’t many clear cut winners in this round of Super Rugby.  The Bulls, Crusaders and Waratahs look the most likely teams to win, but you never know!  Do you play it safe and back the home team relying on getting approximately five out of seven based on historical data or do you go for broke and risk everything by picking some away teams to win?  No away team won in Super Rugby Round 18.   

Managers playing www.testrugby.com must remember that the Brumbies had the bye in Super Rugby Round 18, while the Hurricanes have the bye in Round 19 and neither of these teams are assured of making the finals.  Watch out for injured or unavailable international players, with Ben Smith in doubt for the Highlanders, while Luke Braid and Tony Woodcock aren’t playing for the Blues.  The Waratahs may rest some players this round knowing that they are assured of the top spot.  Players like Stephen Moore and Conrad Smith were injured during the internationals.  Check the team lists below.

Remember that Dan Carter and Kieran Read are probably back for this week, so it could be the end of Colin Slade’s golden run, while if the Crusaders finish second then they won’t play next week, so it could be a risk buying Nemani Nadolo unless you have spare trades.  Sam Whitelock might also be out. 

There are also heaps of injuries and some guys returning from injury so check the team lists below.

Blues vs Chiefs

This is a virtual Quarter Final in some ways with the losing team probably knocked out of Super Rugby 2014.  The Chiefs beat the Hurricanes last round, while the Blues lost in Christchurch to the Crusaders.  This could be the last time we see either of these teams unless they win.  A win should be enough for the Chiefs to make the Top Six, while the Blues will need to thrash the Chiefs by a big margin (38 points to get ahead of the Hurricanes) and hope for other results to go their way. 

The Blues will miss Luke Braid and Tony Woodcock, but welcome back Charles Piutau.  They have a great record at Eden Park in 2014, not losing there.

Will the Blues be spoilers for the defending champion Chiefs team?

My pick - Blues

Players to watch – www.testrugby.com

For the Blues, watch for Patrick Tuipulotu, Jerome Kaino, Ma’a Nonu and Charles Piutau while Ihaia West is a bargain.

For the Chiefs, Aaron Cruden is worth picking now that he is in good form.  Liam Messam and Brodie Retallick are some good points’ producers, while Tim Nanai-Williams and Tom Marshall are exciting outside backs. 

Brumbies vs Force

Both the Brumbies and the Force are within touching distance of the Top Six, but like the Blues, Chiefs and Highlanders, they must win this weekend to make it.  Securing one or two bonus points may also be enough to qualify.

Neither of these teams are finishing the season well, but both teams are desperate to win in order to make the Top Six.  The Force are in a good position, because they have won one more game than their nearest rivals leaving a narrow loss potentially enough for them to qualify.  It could also be the last game for Nick Cummins the Honey Badger before he goes to Japan. 

My pick: Brumbies

Players to watch – www.testrugby.com Neither team should feature in the finals, so don’t get carried away buying players from these teams unless you have spare trades.

Brumbies – yet to be named – Ben Mowen, Nick White, Jesse Mogg.

Force – yet to be named – Nathan Charles, Ben McCalman, Nick Cummins.

Bulls vs Rebels

This game should probably be the most one sided of Super Rugby Round 19 with the Bulls likely to inflict pain on the Rebels.  The Bulls love playing at home and will be desperate to finish the season with a win at home.  The Rebels were humbled by the Lions last week and have faded down the home straight in 2014.

Scott Higginbotham’s team will be looking to finish on a positive note, but they are on a four game losing streak and generally struggle away from home.  They have been competitive at times this season, but have struggled to get off the bottom of the Australian conference.

My pick: Bulls

Players to watch – for those playing www.testrugby.com you are best to avoid players from these two teams.

Bulls (yet to be named) – Jan Serfontein, Victor Matfield, Jono Ross.

Rebels (yet to be named) – Luke Jones, Scott Higginbotham, Jack Debrecaeni.

Crusaders vs Highlanders

This game is going to be another epic encounter.  The Crusaders are top of the New Zealand conference, but a Highlanders win could see them overtake the Crusaders.  The Highlanders have a score to settle after losing a nailbiting match between these two teams earlier this season.

The Crusaders are finally starting to form a good record at home in 2014 and hit their straps with their star players like Nemani Nadolo, Dan Carter and Kieran Read back.  They will miss Richie McCaw, while it will be interesting to see if Sam Whitelock starts.

The Highlanders will be sweating on the fitness of Ben Smith and they will be hurting after their flogging at the hands of the Waratahs.  The Highlanders have a poor away record and if they are going to have any chance of getting a home finals game, they will need to win here, but it doesn’t look likely after the Crusaders recent form. 

The Highlanders will be wanting to win, but should still make the finals if they lose.

My pick – Crusaders

Players to watch – www.testrugby.com

The Crusaders have some really classy players with Sam Whitelock, Kieran Read, Dan Carter (second five eighth) and Nemani Nadolo likely to score points. Be careful though, because Carter and Read could be managed initially and may not play full games.

The Highlanders will be relying on Ben Smith if he is fit, while Joe Wheeler, Patrick Osborne, Lima Sopoaga, Malakai Fekitoa and Nasi Manu could be worth a punt.

Brumbies vs Force

Both the Brumbies and the Force are within touching distance of the Top Six, but like the Blues, Chiefs and Highlanders, they must win this weekend to make it.  Securing one or two bonus points may also be enough to qualify.

Neither of these teams are finishing the season well, but both teams are desperate to win in order to make the Top Six.  The Force are in a good position, because they have won one more game than their nearest rivals leaving a narrow loss potentially enough for them to qualify.  It could also be the last game for Nick Cummins the Honey Badger before he goes to Japan. 

My pick: Brumbies

Players to watch – www.testrugby.com Neither team should feature in the finals, so don’t get carried away buying players from these teams unless you have spare trades.

Brumbies – yet to be named – Ben Mowen, Nick White, Jesse Mogg.

Force – yet to be named – Nathan Charles, Ben McCalman, Nick Cummins.

Lions vs Cheetahs

This match will determine who finishes Super Rugby 2014 at the bottom of the South African conference.  The Lions were picked for this going into Super Rugby 2014, while the Cheetahs were tipped as a dark horse.  What a difference a few months make!

Both of these teams have struggled to gain momentum with the Lions starting strongly, but fading up until recently, while the Cheetahs never got out of the starter’s blocks and have only woken up recently.  Both of these teams won last week to give them confidence. 

Marnitz Boshoff will be the key for the Lions as he has the ability to lead the Lions to an unlikely victory.  The Cheetahs have terrible defence, but they also have some dangerous attacking players like Philip van der Walt, Willie Le Roux, Adriaan Strauss and Johan Goosen.

My pick – Lions

Players to watch – www.testrugby.com

Lions (yet to be named) have Marnitz Boshoff, Warren Whiteley and Warwick Tecklenburg.

The Cheetahs have some quality points scorers with Johan Goosen, Adriaan Strauss, Philip van der Walt and Willie Le Roux, players to watch.

Reds vs Waratahs

There is never any blood lost between NSW and Queensland, no matter what sport it is in.  The Reds return home from Perth and face a confident Waratahs team who has won the Super Rugby minor premiership after thrashing the Highlanders. 

Be careful with this game.  The Waratahs may rest a number of players including Israel Folau for this match and so this game could be tighter than initially expected.  This could also be a good time to dump some Waratahs players who will have the bye next weekend anyway.

The Reds are capable of an upset win here, but I still think the Waratahs will be good enough to win, but this will be closer than expected.

Neither team has been named at the time of writing this.

Players to watch – www.testrugby.com

Reds – James Horwill, James Hanson, Mike Harris and Samu Kerevi.

The Waratahs have so many high scoring players.  Israel Folau is one who won’t be playing.  Bernard Foley, Wycliff Palu, Kurtley Beale, Alofa Alofa, Tatafu Polatu-Nau and Michael Hooper.

My pick- Waratahs

Stormers vs Sharks

The Stormers left their run a bit late in 2014.  They have won their last four games, but won’t be featuring in the finals.  They have had their home games down the home stretch of the season and beat the Sharks when they played them two weeks ago.  The Stormers bring the form into this match against the Sharks.

It seems like a long time ago that the Sharks were dominating Super Rugby 2014.  They are on a two game losing streak and this will continue unless they bring a refreshed team to this game. 

They rested some players against the Cheetahs and this came back to bite them and now they must win to finish second overall and give themselves a good chance of winning the title.

The Stormers have some quality players in their team with Tiaan Liebenberg, Nizaam Carr and Jaco Taute have been scoring well in www.testrugby.com ,

My pick – Stormers

Players to watch: www.testrugby.com

Stormers – Nizaam Carr, Tiaan Liebenberg, Duane Vermeulen, Jaco Taute.

The Sharks (yet to be named) will rely on the returning Bismarck du Plessis, Marcell Coetzee, SP Marais assuming they are playing.

 

Who are you picking to win Super 15 Rugby Round 19 matches?