Super Rugby 2013 is almost here and before you sign up for any tipping competitions based on picking the winning teams and margins, check out my analysis below. I look at the most popular winning margins during round robin play in Super Rugby 2012.
In 2012, there were heaps of tight matches to start with. The analysis below will help people doing Super Rugby 2013 margin picking competitions.
Here is an overview of my findings to help people in picking competitions. Findings are based on Super Rugby 2012 Round Robin matches only.
1) There have been 120 matches in Super Rugby 2012.
2) The home team has won 69 matches compared with 51 away wins.
3) The average winning margin is 10.89 points.
4) The most common winning margin is 5 and 6 with these happening 11 times, while 1 and 7 have been margins 10 times. It is crazy because 8, 11 and 13 has only been the margin twice. This is probably because of the within seven points bonus point, making margins seven points or under more popular.
5) The margins 18, 20 and 25 haven't occurred, which is interesting given that so many people probably tip a 20 or 25 point victory, but it hasn't happened all season.
6) There have been no draws in Super Rugby 2012.
7) There have been 64 matches where the margin has been within seven points. This is more than 50 percent of matches.
8) The biggest margin has been 53 points between the Bulls and the Reds in Round 5.
What do you think of this analysis? Has it shown up your shortcomings as a punter? It does show how even Super 15 Rugby 2012 has been with so many results within seven points.