Where do Ireland go from here?
The stage was set for Ireland to get their revenge over a Welsh side that had won their previous two encounters, at the World Cup and a controversial Six Nations fixture in Cardiff last season. Instead the Irish find themselves licking their wounds after a third successive defeat to Wales in Dublin, the latest of which will be every bit as hard to take as the previous two. It was a pulsating fixture, easily the most thrilling of the opening weekend, and a great advertisement for rugby in the Northern Hemisphere. There was plenty of controversy to dominate discussion afterwards, with Bradley Davies sin-binned for a career threatening off-the-ball tackle on Donnacha Ryan, but in the end Wales were good value for their win. Leigh Halfpenny slotting over a late penalty after Stephen Ferris was adjudged to have 'tip-tackled' Ian Evans. The final score 21-23 in favour of Wales.
Declan Kidney had kept largely to the same group of players he brought to New Zealand when naming his squad for these Six Nations Championships, sparking accusations of conservatism. Undoubtedly it was a safe selection, and one which appears to have backfired as Ireland came up against a Welsh team which, in contrast, was bristling with youthful exuberance. Their relative inexperience in certain positions mattered little as Warren Gatlands' team outplayed their Irish opponents. Ireland, in truth, did remarkably well to stay in the game for so long.
It wasn't an unqualified disaster, far from it. Ireland played their part in an outstanding game of rugby, and might well have won the match. But they now travel to France next weekend needing to win if they want to regain ground in the race for the Championship. An Irish team hasn't managed since Brian O'Driscoll burst into the limelight with a hat-trick of tries in Paris back in 2000.
There were aspects of the game which Kidney can be pleased with. The Irish defence held out for long periods without the ball, and managed to lead 10-5 at half-time thanks to a Rory Best try scored in their only venture into the Welsh twenty-two. That was clinical rugby, which Ireland repeated in the second half when Rob Kearney, Irelands stand out player, put Tommy Bowe in for a try to push Ireland six points ahead. Elsewhere in the pack Paul O'Connell rolled back the years in a typically imposing performance, whilst Donnacha Ryan didn't look out of place when he came on. Ireland certainly had an advantage in the lineout, which Sexton could have played too by hitting the corners more frequently. Cian Healy carried well throughout and Rory Best put in a great shift, thoroughly deserving his sixth score for Ireland.
So where did it all go wrong on the day, and how much responsibility lies with the coaching staff and Kidneys conservative selection?
The Irish back-row may well consist of three devastating ball carriers but for the second match in succession, they have come up short against a well balanced Welsh unit. Sam Warburton is a master of the openside role, his value to the Welsh side is immeasurable. But even in his absence Tipuric gave an excellent performance in the second half doing a lot unseen work at the breakdown. At times the Irish trio managed to build momentum in the second half but it rarely amounted to much and could hardly be described as consistent pressure. Kidney needs to find a long-term solution in the back-row, to find that balance which the modern game demands. There are options, with Chris Henry and Peter O'Mahony both currently playing well in that position. O'Mahony is highly rated by the folk in Munster, and had impressed the Irish selectors enough to merit a place on the bench this weekend. To accommodate a specialist seven, of course, means dropping one of the current trio to the bench. Sean O'Brien offers more impact off the bench than Ferris or Heaslip, but his long-term future for Ireland might be at the back of the scrum so I'd be tempted to have Jamie Heaslip amongst the substitutions with O'Brien at number eight, keeping Ferris at six.
Kidney opted for Conor Murray and Sexton as his half-back pairing for the opener, and whilst neither produced a perfect performance they have probably done enough to remain in the starting fifteen for France. Murray's delivery was mostly accurate, and his decision making generally sound except for one moment midway through the second-half when he kicked away precious turnover ball. Sexton had one notable missed penalty but was otherwise consistent off the kicking tee, and his quick thinking was the catalyst for Tommy Bowe's try in the corner. There's no doubt that Sexton needs to play in these games, he'll be Ireland's first choice outside-half for the next five to six years at least, but better timing of his substitution could have helped Ireland hold out for that all important win. There is no better outside-half than Ronan O'Gara for closing a game out in the final quarter, this he has proven time and again at every level. O'Gara was introduced immediately after George North scored for Wales, Ireland still had the lead by a point at this stage but momentum had swung. O'Gara needed to be on with ten or fifteen minutes remaining to have any calming influence. Once North had scored, Kidney needed to stick with Sexton so as not to damage his confidence. He must be trusted in these situations eventually.
There was a huge difference in the midfield, quite literally, between the two sides. Gordon D'Arcy and Fergus McFadden, a late replacement for Keith Earls, simply had no answer to physical and dynamic running threat posed by Jamie Roberts and Jonathon Davies, as well as an impressive George North coming off his wing. In possession Ireland were mostly swallowed up in the midfield, making little headway against their more physically imposing opponents. Life without Brian O'Driscoll doesn't look at all rosy just yet, and whilst Keith Earls probable return to the centre might inject pace it seems unlikely to be the long-term solution. Gordon D'Arcy is a spent force at this level. Other options should be explored during these championships with Ireland all but out of the running now anyway. Eoin O'Malley is one for the future, and the sort of individual who needs to be involved at this level sooner rather than later. On the wings Tommy Bowe was left badly exposed for Davies opening try but took his own well, and also provided the assist for Best. Bowe might also be an option in the centre if Kidney decides to address the lack of bulk which hindered the backline on Sunday. Trimble didn't have one of his better games, but will get better as he settles into the shirt. You only have to look at his performances for Ulster in the Heineken cup to know his running can be devastating at times. Whether Kidney chooses to acknowledge this next week is debatable though.
Multiple changes aren't required, just a little tinkering. Ireland are not that far off being an excellent side as their victory over Australia at the World Cup showed. France will provide another step up again, and a difficult environment for introducing new caps to international rugby but Ireland must now prioritise long-term development of the national squad over short-term success in these Championships. Hence my exclusion below of D'Arcy and O'Callaghan in this proposed squad for Paris. Let us know what you think, Declan Kidney won't agree for starters.
Backs: Kearney Bowe Earls McFadden Trimble Sexton Murray
Forwards: Healy Best Ross Ryan O'Connell Ferris O'Mahony O'Brien
Subs: Cronin Court Tuohy Heaslip Reddan O'Gara O'Malley
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