What is the best Super Rugby margin to pick in tipping competitions?

Shot of a rugby ball
What margin should you go for when you are making your fantasy rugby picks?
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For those playing SuperBru Super Rugby 2015, picking the margins is proving to be a problem. For those not playing, you get extra points for getting within five points of the actual margin.

It was frustrating in Super Rugby Round 11 with the Chiefs and Waratahs expected to win by plenty, but they only won by eight and two points, while most people expected a close match between the Brumbies and Highlanders but got a 13 point margin.

There have been 73 matches so far in Super Rugby 2015, with the most popular margins being five and seven points, ahead of 12, 1 and 2 points. The average margin is 11.1 points.

If you want to get bonus points for getting the margin correct, then the safest bet is picking a winning margin of seven points (a margin of 2 to 12 would be rewarded).

This would get you a margin point in 45/73 games (62 percent), while picking a margin of six points (a margin of 1 to 11 would be rewarded) would get you a margin point in 44/73 games (60 percent).

Because the average winning margin is 11 points, you will be unsuccessful sometimes, with some higher numbers, but given that margin points are hard to come by, the safest way to get at least 60 percent of them is to go for a margin of seven points.

If you are sitting at the top of your conference then this is a good strategy, otherwise you may have to chance your arm. The problem is weekends like Round 11 where some teams unexpectedly won by less points and others won by more points than expected.