The opening block of fixtures in this season’s United Rugby Championship has drawn to a close and as the league pauses for the Quilter Nations Series, the Welsh regions have plenty to ponder both on and off the field.
Off the pitch, Welsh rugby stands at a crossroads. The Welsh Rugby Union confirmed last week that professional men’s rugby in the country will be streamlined from four teams to three within the next three years.
After exploring a more drastic two-team model, the WRU settled on funding three professional sides beyond 2028 - with clubs expected to be based in the capital, the east, and the west of Wales.
For now, Cardiff, Ospreys, Scarlets, and Dragons all continue to compete in the URC, but the future of at least one region is uncertain.
On the pitch, Cardiff have made a flying start while their fellow regions have struggled to find early-season rhythm, leaving three of the four Welsh teams in the lower reaches of the table.
So, what’s gone right, what’s gone wrong, and where do they go from here?
Cardiff have made an excellent start to the season, ending the opening block of fixtures in fourth place with 20 points from a possible 25.
The Blue and Blacks recently extended their dominance in the East Wales derby with a 21st consecutive victory at Rodney Parade, before finishing the block with a narrow 20-19 win over Edinburgh at the Arms Park on Saturday.
Fly-half Ioan Lloyd delivered a moment of magic, slotting a penalty from halfway to complete a second-half comeback after Cardiff trailed at the interval.
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Injuries have caused concern at an international level, with Taulupe Faletau and Josh Adams both sidelined. Adams had impressed earlier in the match, starting and finishing a fine counter-attacking try in the first half.
On the domestic front, number 8 Alun Lawrence has led from the front, topping the league in both tackles made and successful carries over the opening five rounds.
Compared with previous seasons, Corniel Van Zyl’s side have shown greater resilience, remaining competitive until the closing stages of matches and boasting a pack capable of matching most teams in the league. New Scottish international signing Javan Sebastian has also made an immediate impact, scoring against his former club last weekend.
Four wins from five games is a notable achievement for any Welsh team, made even more impressive considering Cardiff lost head coach Matt Sherratt to the national set-up on the eve of the season. For Van Zyl’s side, it marks a promising start to the campaign.
It has been a more uneven start for the Ospreys, who have just one win and one draw from their first five fixtures. A much-needed victory over Zebre offered respite, but a heavy defeat to Glasgow and a frustrating 19-19 draw with the Dragons last weekend underline a side still seeking consistency.
Despite leading 19-7 at Rodney Parade, the Ospreys faded badly in the closing quarter and had to settle for a draw.
Injuries in midfield have disrupted continuity. Evardi Boshoff only returned last weekend, while Keiran Williams remains out with tendinitis and Owen Watkin continues to recover from a long-term knee problem.
Phil Cokanasiga has been a bright spark, crossing for three tries and providing an attacking threat. Yet improvement is needed in two key areas: The set-piece, which has not been as reliable as in previous years, and maintaining intensity for the full 80 minutes.
Notably, the Ospreys have led at half-time in four of their five matches, only to let those advantages slip after the break - a pattern that must be addressed if they are to climb the table.
The Dragons’ search for a United Rugby Championship victory has now stretched to 22 games, but there have been glimpses of progress.
In round three, they battled back against the Sharks only to spurn a drop-goal chance that could have clinched the win. A week later, they rallied from 19-7 down against the Ospreys, levelling through their rolling maul before Tinus de Beer missed a late conversion and penalty that might have finally broken the drought.
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Aaron Wainwright has once again led by example, while Ben Carter and Brodie Coghlan’s performances have earned Wales call-ups.
The Dragons’ biggest challenge remains their slow starts. Too often, they are allowing opponents to build early leads before mounting second-half recoveries. If they can begin games with greater control and composure, that long-awaited win will surely come.
It’s been a bruising start for the Scarlets, who sit bottom of the table without a single point after four defeats. Their second-round fixture against Connacht was postponed due to Storm Amy, and a tough South African tour yielded no reward.
Home matches against Munster and the Stormers - both unbeaten - added to the challenge, while their scrum came under severe pressure in Durban against a Sharks side packed with Springboks.
Despite flashes of individual quality from Taine Plumtree, Ellis Mee, and Tom Rogers, the standout performer has been South African back-rower Jarrod Taylor. The 24-year-old, who joined earlier this year, has made six turnovers - the second-highest tally in the competition.
Dwayne Peel’s main concern, however, will be his team’s lack of attacking edge. With just 58 points scored across their fixtures, the Scarlets’ backline - filled with internationals - has yet to click. That will need to change quickly as Champions Cup rugby looms in the next block.