The Next 3 Games Will Decide the Relegation Battle

Leeds Carnegie technically have six games left to save their Premiership status. The truth however is that their fate could be decided in the next three games. They are currently 7 points adrift of Newcastle (who have a game in hand) and 9 points adrift of the Sale Sharks.  In short, they need to start winning soon.

With this in mind Leeds' next 3 fixtures would be important no matter who the opposition were. The fact that the games are against Sale (away), Exeter (home) and Newcastle (away) simply adds to the make or break nature of this period.

The bottom of Premiership table currently looks like this

Sale - Points - 22 - Games Played -  16

Newcastle - Points - 20 -  Games Played - 15

Leeds - Points - 13 -  Games Played - 16

Let's assume, for the sake of analysis, that Sale and Newcastle will lose their other two games in this period (Sale play Northampton and Gloucester, Newcastle play Saracens and Gloucester).

Ignoring bonus points, this means that if Leeds lose all three games they will be around 11 points adrift with 3 games left, i.e. all but relegated. If Leeds lose to Newcastle and Sale they'll be around 7 points from safety and still in deep trouble.

However,  if they can beat either Sale or Newcastle they will be around 4 points adrift and still in with a fighting chance. If they can win two or even all three of these games they will be right up with the pack and then it's anyone's call who will go down.

After this period all three clubs have tough run-ins, it's hard to see many points being won in these fixtures.

Leeds - Wasps (A), Harlequins (H), Northampton (A)

Newcastle - Northampton (H), Leicester (H), Bath (H)

Sale - London Irish (H), Exeter (H)

By the time Leeds have played Newcastle on the 9th April we will have a much clearer idea of their chances of survival. One thing is certain though, their season hinges on the next 3 games.