A great thing about rugby is that it runs in almost exact cycles. Four years followed by a World Cup, a presidential like term after which a coach's fate is decided. And like an elected official if a coach doesn't keep his pre election promises he won't be taken back for a second term. There are rare exceptions of people brought back despite under performing. Graham "George W Bush Henry had his contract renewed with the fine print of: You better F***ING win it next time.
Four years is perfect for analysing the evolution of a team. It's long enough for a coach to make his mark but short enough so his ideas don't grow stale. Unless a coach achieves extraordinary success, like Guy Noves winning Top 14 titles in his first four years in charge, then after four years a coach should be weighed against potential successors.
Take Leinster, who won the Heineken Cup in Michael Cheika's fourth season. In his fifth, Leinster lacked the power to compete with Toulouse and the execution to beat the Ospreys. These problems were rectified this year.
How much credit for Leinster success should go to Joe Schmidt and how much to the maturing talent on the pitch is debatable. But, who knows if Schmidt had been installed a year earlier, maybe his fresh ideas would have delivered Leinster back-to-back titles?
I'm not saying that you should fire a coach after he delivers a huge title, that is absurd and extremely disloyal and ungrateful. But frank and honest talks should be had to see if that coach has maximised his potential with a team. These are discussions that need to be had in order to avoid mishaps like Eddie O'Sullivan and Warren Gatland's long term and big money contracts.
O'Sullivan's contract made him a lame duck coach. There was no way he was going to see the contract through to the 2011 World Cup but the union didn't want to give him the payout that would accompany his firing. Irish rugby lost a rebuilding year under Kidney as the IRFU tried to shame O'Sullivan to quit.
Irelands prospects going into this World Cup are there brightest ever, even eclipsing 2007. In 2007 the provinces were coming off a dismal European campaign with Leinster and Munster getting trounced by Wasps and the Scarlets respectively. Although Munster faired even worse on that front this year, the silver lining was the blooding of potential World Cup squad members Felix Jones and Conor Murray. The extra game time propelled them from unknowns to sure starters for the province. Couple that with the Magners League triumph and Munster's season breaks even.
Munster's epic performance against Leinster was every bit as good as there Amlin Challenge loss was bad and as their victory was more recent it is a better indicator of where they are as a side. Lifeimi Mafi is stutterstepping his way back to prominence and is showing signs of the player who was the Isa Nacewa of 2009. The days of lamenting is ineligibility for the national side went after his thorough humbling in the 2009 Heineken semi and his Magners final and semi displays were a throwback to the days when he was actually effective in a red jersey.
Tony McGahan bought himself an extra season's worth of rope with the Magners League win but if he doesn't improve in Europe it could be used to hang him yet. Next year is the end of his four-year term after which a parting of the ways is best for Munster. Like Schmidt he inherited a strong side but had them woefully unprepared for that Leinster semi final. It might be shortsighted and ill informed to blame him for that but one of the few things a coach can control is guarding his side from complacency. I doubt anyone who saw the game would say he succeeded in doing that.
The continuity from Kidney to McGahan may have been good initially but an outsider with fresh ideas is best for the province because they need a far more dynamic gameplan than their current one if they want to utilise their strike runners. Far too often a Munster forward gets the ball and then decides to start running.
Leinster gets a lot of their quick ball from their back row hurtling around the corner at full tilt. The Magners league final was a game too many for Leinster. Some players looked physically drained, although you can hardly fault Heaslip, O'Brien and others after their effort against Northampton. Schmidt's task is to succeed where Cheika did not. To keep everyone motivated for a second year is difficult. For all his slickness, coolness and scheming Guy Noves has never done it. Only Martin Johnson's furrowed eyebrows were able to retain the Heineken Cup.
The World Cup will enhance Leinster's chances. Either they will use a poor World Cup as motivation like Munster did in 2008 or use a good one as a springboard, like the Grand Slam did for Leinster in 2009. Whatever happens the provinces (Ulster too!) has left Ireland in good health coming up to the World Cup.
The only worry would be that another New Zealand capitulation would see Henry smuggled out of the country and replaced by Schmidt. Leinster on the other hand, will definitely want four more years of Schmidt.
