RaboDirect Pro12: Week 11 Preview
The RaboDirect Pro12 returns during this festive period, with 4 rounds of European rugby complete. As usual this is the time for local derbies, and a chance for fans to get out of the house for a little while to cheer on their team. On Friday Gavin Henson returned to action as he contributed to Cardiff's 28-9 win over Dragons while Aironi earned only their second win of the season with a 27-13 win over Treviso, all points coming from the boot of Luciano Orquera. Now we look ahead to the games on Monday, 26th December.
Scarlets vs Ospreys, 2:05pm
Parc y Scarlets is set for a full house as this fierce Welsh rivalry rears its head again. The fact that this game will see a higher attendance than Scarlets' crunch Heineken Cup tie against Munster shows just how big this fixture is to the Scarlets supporters. Scarlets have yet to beat Ospreys since they moved to Parc y Scarlets. Both sides are returning from a highly disappointing 2 weeks in the Heineken Cup, where their chances of qualification were ended.
With Alun Wyn Jones, Ian Evans and Ian Gough all unavailable to the Ospreys, regular backrow James King is forced to move to lock. Veteran prop Adam Jones is set to make his 15oth appearance for the Ospreys and is at tighthead while Kahn Fotuali'i starts at number nine after recovering from injury. For Scarlets, George North is back from injury and starts on the wing while Rhys Priestland is moved from fullback to outhalf.
This game is always a tight affair given the bragging rights at stake for player and supporter alike. A drab game wouldn't be out of this question, given that both sides will be recovering from the disappointment of their poor European showing. Scarlets did show in the last 20 minutes at Thomond Park that they play with no fear and don't give too much respect that anyone. With a rare full house in support, they should have enough to scrape this. Scarlets by a score.
Scarlets: 15 Liam Williams, 14 George North, 13 Scott Williams, 12 Jon Davies, 11 Sean Lamont, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Ben Morgan, 7 Rob McCusker, 6 Aaron Shingler, 5 Dominic Day, 4 Lou Reed, 3 Rhys Thomas, 2 Matthew Rees (capt), 1 Rhodri Jones.
Replacements: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Phil John, 18 Deacon Manu, 19 Sione Timani, 20 Johnathan Edwards, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Stephen Jones, 23 Iongi Viliame.
Ospreys:15 Barry Davies, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Andrew Bishop, 12 Ashley Beck, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i, 8 Joe Bearman, 7 Justin Tipuric (c), 6 Ryan Jones, 5 Jonathan Thomas, 4 James King, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Richard Hibbard, 1 Paul James.
Replacements: 16 Mefin Davies, 17 Ryan Bevington, 18 Aaron Jarvis, 19 Tom Smith, 20 George Stowers, 21 Rhys Webb, 22 Matthew Morgan, 23 Hanno Dirksen
Leinster vs Ulster, 5:30pm
The main talking point of this game has been the Ulster selection, or namely the Ulster A selection. The Ulster management have decided to essentially forego this game in favour of naming a strong side the following Friday at home to Munster, a more winnable game. For the paying fans and particularly the travelling Ulster supporters, this is a disgraceful decision, even though their hand has been forced to an extent by the IRFU player management policy. Nevertheless one hopes that the youthful Ulster side, containing 5 debutants, can put up a decent fight. Players 12-15 have been form players in the British & Irish Cup, but this is a whole new level of opposition.
Leinster continue their successful rotation system and have made several changes to the sides that annihilated Bath in the Heineken Cup. Unlike Ulster, many of the changes see experienced players welcomed back into the fray, such as Cian Healy, Sean Cronin, Kevin McLaughlin and Gordon D'Arcy. Ian Madigan, who has proved an excellent deputy to Jonathan Sexton, starts at 10.
In terms of a prediction, the question is by how much rather than if with regards to a Leinster fan. This young Ulster side will die a death in Dublin unless there is a big surprise on the cards, with so much inexperience in the backline Ulster should struggle to defend against the Leinster juggernaut. Leinster by at least 30 points.
Leinster: 15 Luke Fitzgerald, 14 David Kearney, 13 Fergus McFadden, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Fionn Carr, 10 Ian Madigan, 9 Eoin Reddan, 8 Leo Auva'a, 7 Shane Jennings (capt), 6 Kevin McLaughlin, 5 Devin Toner, 4 Damian Browne, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Sean Cronin, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Richardt Strauss, 17 Jack McGrath, 18 Jamie Hagan,, 19 Steven Sykes, 20 Rhys Ruddock, 21 Isaac Boss, 22 Eoin O'Malley, 23 Andrew Conway.
Ulster: 15 Peter Nelson, 14 Chris Cochrane, 13 Michael Allen, 12 Chris Farrell, 11 Simon Danielli, 10 James McKinney, 9 Paul Marshall, 8 Robbie Diack, 7 Ali Birch, 6 Neil McComb, 5 Lewis Stevenson, 4 Tim Barker, 3 Adam Macklin, 2 Nigel Brady (capt), 1 Callum Black.
Replacements: 16 Niall Annett, 17 Jerry Cronin, 18 Tom Court, 19 James Simpson, 20 Conor Joyce, 21 Ian Porter, 22 Stuart Olding, 23 Conor Gaston
1872 Cup: Edinburgh vs Glasgow, 5:35pm
The Scottish derbies are the one occasions when crowds turn up in droves to watch the Scottish franchises. Edinburgh are set to contend for qualification for the knockout stages in Europe after winning at home to Cardiff last week. Coach Michael Bradley comtinues to solve the problem over who to pick at scrumhalf by retaining Greig Laidlaw at 10. This is a role where Laidlaw has excelled in recent weeks and he earns his spot ahead of Phil Godman and Harry Leonard. The only change to the Edinburgh side sees a straight swap between Roddy Grant and Ross Rennie at openside flanker.
Glasgow managed to earn 6 points in their European pool in the back to back games with Montpellier and still have a chance (albeit slim) of further progression in the Heineken Cup. Duncan Weir returns to the side at flyhalf in place of Ruaridh Jackson and has a chance of staking a claim for the Scottish number 10 jersey. David Lemi starts on the wing and Graeme Morrison returns at inside centre. There is only one change in the pack, with Rob Harley back in the side on the blindside flank.
In the Scottish derbies, away wins are a rare commodity. With the likes of Laidlaw, Visser and Paterson in good form, Edinburgh should have the edge. Edinburgh by a score.
Edinburgh: 15 Chris Paterson, 14 Lee Jones, 13 Nick De Luca, 12 James King, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Greig Laidlaw (c), 9 Mike Blair, 8 Netani Talei, 7 Ross Rennie, 6 David Denton, 5 Sean Cox, 4 Grant Gilchrist, 3 Geoff Cross, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Allan Jacobsen/Kyle Traynor.
Replacements: 16 Alun Walker, 17 Kyle Traynor/Robin Hislop, 18 Jack Gilding, 19 Esteban Lozada, 20 Roddy Grant, 21 Phil Godman, 22 Matt Scott, 23 Jim Thompson.
Glasgow: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 David Lemi, 13 Troy Nathan, 12 Graeme Morrison, 11 Rory Lamont, 10 Duncan Weir, 9 Chris Cusiter, 8 Johnnie Beattie, 7 John Barclay, 6 Rob Harley, 5 Al Kellock, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Mike Cusack, 2 Pat MacArthur, 1 Ryan Grant.
Replacements: 16 Dougie Hall, 17 Jon Welsh, 18 Moray Low, 19 Tom Ryder, 20 Henry Pyrgos, 21 Chris Fusaro, 22 Colin Shaw, 23 Ruaridh Jackson.
Munster vs Connacht, 7:45pm
It is set to be an emotional night at Thomond Park as Munster and Ireland legendary prop John Hayes is making his last appearance for the province. Since making his international debut in 2000 against Scotland, Hayes was a mainstay in the national side for 10 years while he was also a rock of the Munster pack since the turn of the millenium. A humble man and honest professional, "The Bull" was a huge fan favourite among the Munster support.
Munster have made 11 changes from the team that defeated Scarlets in Europe and in doing so have named an all Irish starting XV (with only one non Irish player, BJ Botha, on the bench). Only Donncha O'Callaghan, Niall Ronan, Keith Earls and Simon Zebo remain in the side. However unlike Ulster's selection many of the replacements are experienced players, like Marcus Horan, the aforementioned Hayes and Mick O'Driscoll. Munster's backline is very young but has plenty of pace.
Connacht were very unlucky to lose out on the result of a lifetime away to Gloucester, with the Cherry & Whites scoring a last minute try to deny to the Irish province a famous win. Eric Elwood has made only one change, with Fetu'u Vainikolo replacing the injured Mark McCrea. Therefore it is a 1st string Connacht selection travelling to play a Munster 2nd string side. There are many exciting matchups in this game, including the battle of the centres where all four of McSharry, Griffin, Barnes and Earls will be looking to make a case for Ireland selection come next month. Munster's Ian Keatley also faces his former province who gave him a platform to kickstart his professional career.
While Munster's lineup is depleted, they have enough firepower to deal with Connacht, who are on a horrendous run of losses. There will also be a motivation to give John Hayes a proper sendoff. Munster by 10-15 points.
Munster: 15 Sean Scanlon, 14 Luke O'Dea, 13 Keith Earls, 12 Danny Barnes, 11 Simon Zebo, 10 Ian Keatley, 9 Tomas O'Leary, 8 Paddy Butler, 7 Niall Ronan, 6 Billy Holland, 5 Mick O'Driscoll capt, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 John Hayes, 2 Denis Fogarty, 1 Marcus Horan.
Replacements: 16 Sean Henry, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 BJ Botha, 19 Ian Nagle, 20 James Coughlan, 21 Duncan Williams, 22 Scott Deasy, 23 Tom Gleeson.
Connacht: 15 Gavin Duffy (c), 14 Fetu'u Vainikolo, 13 Eoin Griffin, 12 Dave McSharry, 11 Tiernan O'Halloran, 10 Niall O'Connor, 9 Frank Murphy, 8 John Muldoon, 7 Johnny O'Connor, 6 Dave Gannon, 5 Mike McCarthy, 4 George Naoupu, 3 Ronan Loughney, 2 Ethienne Reynecke, 1 Brett Wilkinson.
Replacements: 16 Adrian Flavin, 17 Dylan Rogers, 18 Rodney Ah You, 19 Mick Kearney, 20 Eoin McKeon, 21 Paul O'Donohoe, 22 Matthew Jarvis, 23 Kyle Tonetti.
