Aviva Premiership Preview - Round 20
There's a full programme of Aviva Premiership fixtures to wet your appetite this weekend after last week's catch up rounds took advantage of the Heineken Cup fixtures. With only three rounds to play for most of the top-flight sides, things are beginning to get a little tense at both ends of the table.
Leeds Carnegie climbed off the bottom of the standings for the first time since the opening round of the season after a tight 30-29 triumph of Newcastle last weekend, while Bath's 36-31 victory over Gloucester strengthened their bid for a top-six finish.
This weekend boasts more important clashes that could dictate the outcome of the season for some sides, although there's still plenty to play for in the race for the play-offs and the top-six.
James Jones previews the weekends ties and predicts the outcomes.
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Friday 15th April 2011
Newcastle Falcons v Northampton Saints - 7.45pm (Live on ESPN)
Newcastle occupy 12th spot in the Premiership standings for the first time since March 2003 and will still be hurting from their disappointing loss against Leeds last Saturday. Reacting positively will be key to their survival chances and, with a game in hand still, they'll be confident of steering clear of danger before the season ends. But, with four consecutive losses in all competitions, they'll have to turn that confidence into to results if the worst case scenario is to be avoided.
Northampton have won their last three meetings with The Falcons and they'll still be on a high after reaching the semi-finals of the Heineken Cup last weekend. Saints are unbeaten in four matches in all competitions and have a good chance to widen the gap between themselves in fourth and London Irish who are knocking on the play-off places' door in fifth.
Prediction: Away Win
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Saturday 16th April 2011
Bath Rugby v Harlequins - 2.15pm
Just a point separates these two sides in the middle of the table and a top-six finish is still a huge possibility for both of them. Bath's 26-18 win at home to Exeter last weekend closed the gap on Harlequins and a win at The Rec on Saturday will see them leapfrog their visitors armed with a game in hand. Their win over the Chiefs ended a three game losing run and they'll now feel confident that they can end the season strongly - a double header with Newcastle follows an away trip to Wasps in the next round.
Harlequins were held 6-6 by Bath at The Stoop in October, but they'll be itching to cement their top-six place by going one further in the return fixture. With two wins in their last three matches, they'll be confident that they can register only their second victory at The Rec since 2005. However, they have lost their last three Aviva Premiership matches on the road.
Prediction: Home Win
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Exeter Chiefs v Saracens - 3pm
Exeter's first season in top-flight rugby has been relatively successful and they've done well to ensure they'll be playing in the Aviva Premiership next season. They've only met Saracens once competitively and that saw them run out surprise 23-9 winners at Vicarge Round in the reverse fixture in round seven. A strong start to the season looks to have been complimented with a weak finish as the Chiefs have recorded four consecutive defeats in the Premiership, although they have won four of their last five matches in all competitions.
Saracens are finishing the season strongly and have recorded eight successive victories in all competitions since January. They trail league leaders Leicester by only three points and they'll be aiming to knock the Tigers off their perch before the play-offs begin. A disappointing loss to Exeter Chiefs in October may seem like a distant memory, but they'll no doubt be seeking revenge at Sandy Park on Saturday.
Prediction: Away Win
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Leicester Tigers v Gloucester Rugby - 3pm (Live on Sky)
Leicester have lost just once in their last 12 Premiership outings - a 14-15 home loss to Saracens in October - and they remain at the top of the table if only by a narrow three point margin. However, they have lost two of their last three home fixtures in all competitions. Their record against Gloucester at Welford Road hasn't been as great as they would have liked, losing four and drawing one in their last eight home meetings.
Gloucester's play-off bid could be all but secured with a win on Saturday, but their poor away record has seen them win only two of their last six Premiership games on the road. They will, of course, have one eye on an important game in hand at home to Northampton on Tuesday night, but they'll surely be eyeing up a victory over the Tigers that'll secure a league double over them for this season.
Prediction: Home Win
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Sale Sharks v London Irish - 5.3opm (Live on ESPN)
Sale will be looking to record only their second win over Irish since January 2009 and what better place to do it than Bolton's Reebok Stadium, which hosts its first ever Rugby Union match this weekend. With nothing to play for apart from pride, Sale will be hoping to record a third successive top-flight win for the first time since the 2008/09 season. The Sharks have had another disappointing season, so they'll believe a strong finish will be a good platform to build on for the next campaign.
London Irish have lost their last 10 away matches since October, but still have a fading chance of making the play-offs. Although they may have to settle for a top-six finish, Irish will want to give themselves every chance of catching Northampton in fourth. However, the fact that the last 11 matches involving London Irish have been won by the home side does not make positive reading.
Prediction: Away Win
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Sunday 17th April 2011
London Wasps v Leeds Carnegie - 3pm
Five points from their last six matches means Wasps are the currently the Premiership's worst form team heading into the final three rounds of the season. Wasps will view this season as an underachievement, especially after coming so close to the play-offs last season and, although a top-six finish is achievable, their chances are quickly slipping from under them. They'll view this as a must-win game in order to end the season on a high.
Leeds will be full of confidence after their 30-29 win over Newcastle last weekend lifted them off the bottom of the table for the first time since the opening day of the season. They have only ever registered two league victories over Wasps, both coming last season, and another win against them on Sunday could boost their survival chances as they head in to what could be their final few Premiership games.
Prediction: Home Win
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You can follow James on Twitter at @jj2388
