Super Rugby Statistical Analysis - Cream Rising To Top!

Super Rugby Statistical Analysis - Cream Rising To Top!

Super Rugby Round 11 is upon us and the cream is rising to the top with the Stormers, Crusaders and Chiefs looking the most likely teams to win the competition.  The average winning margin is increasing as the strong teams like the Crusaders are starting to kick into gear, while the lesser lights are starting to fade after decent starts. This is similar to what happened during the Rugby World Cup where the lesser teams are having their depth tested.  I thought I would do some analysis of results from the first ten rounds of Super Rugby action to make things easier for punters and participants in tipping competitions.

Here are the statistics:
1) There have been 66 matches in Super Rugby 2012 so far.

2) The home team has won 35 out of 66 matches or 53 percent of matches.  Home ground advantage and difficulty on the road are less of a factor now as they were when Super Rugby began in 1996.

3) Round 1 was the closest with an average winning margin of 4.4 points and six out of the seven losers got bonus points for finishing within seven points.

4) Round 6 had the highest average margin with 14.4 points.

5) The average winning margin has been over 10 points in five rounds including four of the last five rounds.

6) With the exception of Round 2, the first five rounds had the closest results with six winning margins of under seven points in Round 1 and 5 and in 25 of the first 34 matches (74 percent) in the first five rounds.

7) The Bulls winning margin of 53 points against the Reds in Round 5 was the biggest winning margin and the only winning margin over seven points in that round.

8 ) There have been 38 bonus points for finishing within seven points in 66 matches (58 percent).  So always select at least half of your margins of seven points or less when making your picks.

9) There have been only two bonus points for finishing within seven points for teams in Rounds 6,7 and 10.

10) The average margin for the first five rounds was 8.4, although if you take out the massive score in the Bulls vs Reds match then the average margin was 7 points.

11) The average margin for the last five rounds is 11.9 points.

12) The average winning margin for all ten rounds is 10 points.

13) Rounds 5 and 7 were best for the home teams with five wins out of seven matches.

14) Round 10 was best for the away teams with only the Chiefs winning at home and five away wins.

15) There have been no draws so far.

To quote Navjot Singh Sidhu -"Statistics are like mini skirts, what they reveal is enticing, what they conceal is vital."

What do you think about Super Rugby statistics after Round 10?  Do you think there is any chance that the lower ranked teams can bridge the gap to the Chiefs, Crusaders and Stormers?  Will this change the way you make Super Rugby picks in the future?