Northern Hemisphere Rugby: Might Trumps Flight
http://breakingthegainline.wordpress.com/2012/11/18/northern-hemisphere-rugby-might-trumps-flight/
Rugby in the northern hemisphere is power based. Fear of defeat outweighs ambition. This has been starkly proved in the Autumn Series.
Since 2003, English rugby has focussed on grunt over guile and the sledgehammer over the scalpel. It is an approach that priorities reducing mistakes and maximising reliability. England's run to the 2007 World Cup Final was proof that it can work in certain circumstances, but often gets exposed as one dimensional.
This is what I would label as 'World War 1 rugby', a strategy of brute power and attritional conflict where teams inch up the field. In driving terms, WW1 teams hover between first and third gear. New Zealand flies along in fourth and fifth gear playing blitzkrieg rugby.
The All Blacks possess the magical ingredients of robust power accompanied by creative precision. South Africa has aspects of both but prefer to utilise their bunker-busting forward play more frequently. The Wallabies are a couple of mountainous front 5 players away from resolving their set-piece problems and competing consistently with New Zealand.
The Lost Generation:
The northern approach is epitomised by the international careers of men such as James Simpson-Daniel, Nick Abendanon, Shane Geraghty and arguably, Danny Cipriani. All of these players has rapier attacking games, but have perceived defensive fragilities and questions over their consistency. Young players like Freddie Burns, Christian Wade and Jonny May cannot be allowed to go unused.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lA7OKP9N06g = James Simpson Daniel humiliates Jonah Lomu
The default setting of some rugby coaches has been to select teams on the basis of weaknesses and not strengths. Northern teams never back themselves to go out and score five tries. Instead, they focus on set-piece precision and defensive lockdown. Big is best.
In New Zealand, Simpson-Daniel would have 50+ caps and the others would likely have 20 or 30. Southern coaches, perhaps due to comparatively smaller playing pools than England or France, focus on maximising strengths and then “shock horror- earning their money by coaching to improve weaknesses.
Conrad Smith was seen as too light and too much of a defensive liability when he first became an All Black. But, what he offered was a multi-dimensional attacking game to unpick the most resolute of defences. Some work in the gym and defensive tweaking, has turned him into one of the great modern centres.
Simpson-Daniel was first capped in 2002. He rounded Jonah Lomu like a speedboat zooming around an oil tanker. In total, he has won a paltry 10 caps despite scything through numerous premiership defences. Abendanon has won 2 caps despite offering a much-needed cutting edge. Cipriani has won 7 caps but off-field issues have complicated his selection. Geraghty has won 6 caps. Add Mathew Tait and Tom Varndell to the list.
Compare such a scarcity of caps to more conservative players. Andy Goode won 15 caps, Jamie Noon 38 and the ever-reliable Brad Barritt is already on 7 caps. These three players weigh an average of 94kg. The attacking quad weighs 89kg on average. Might trumps flight.
There have been some exceptions. Shane Williams has been a phenomenon for Wales while Jason Robinson was a prodigious performer for England. Down Under, there are numerous examples from Quade Cooper to the early Conrad Smith or Aaron Cruden.
Ultimately, the only way to win a world cup is to pick your best players. Power is required to go toe to toe with opposition teams but deftness breaks deadlocks. Every year, this is proved during the Autumn International Series.
