Where are the Tri Nations?
So as we reach to the end of the Northern Hemisphere season what is happening down under and where are teams in the ambitions for success at the world cup?
We have seen where the European teams after in interesting Six Nations and close encounters in the Heineken Cup.
But the Super 15 is well on its way under its new format and I think it paints an interesting picture as to where New Zealand, Australia and South Africa are. Lets start with the world champions and current super 15 champions.
South Africa. After a mixed autumn, drug scandals and mixed results their Super form has been somewhat mixed. As ever all of the S.A teams have shown physicality and a drive which will always mark them out as contenders in a tight game. The Bulls have struggled for form, with many of there key players struggling to find the heights which set them out as such a dynamic team. Law changes as well have hampered them with teams not being rewarded as heavily for kicking based tactics, which robs them slightly of one of there key tactics with their two playmakers having excellent kicking games. The Stormers at the moment are leading the SA charge and have key Springboks helping them. The sharks are close behind but there persistence with Smit instead of the Beast could prove costly. The Beast offers far more dynamism than Smit, who I am afraid looks to be on the slope to retirement. The Springboks should take Smit to the World Cup he is a great leader and has huge experience but up against the top teams I think he will come undone. So overall the Springboks appear to be in reasonable shape. How they manage there older players will be key and inject some youth into the team, then they could strike a lethal balance. They need to be wary though of relying on the old guard to heavily, there set piece, kicking, and physicality will always mark them out as contenders though with the ability to cause any team problems.
New Zealand. I personally think New Zealand might have some selection issues. This is the World Cup which the core group of players whom have been the standout players of this generation, but some are lacking form, and have had niggling injuries. Lets look at the Hurricanes, many of there AB's have struggled for form, especially Nonu. Smith has not hit the heights he would have liked and Gear has struggled with injury. Corey Jane as well has not had the impact he would have liked, especially with back three spots being very competitive. Outside Centre seems to be a problem position for the AB's come WC time and the lack of form by there seasoned internationals will be a worry. With SBW in menacing form, Nonu needs to get his game together or face losing his spot as the AB's 12. Some of the younger players though are very much forcing themselves into selection, particularly Dagg and Guildford in an in-form Crusaders team. Both have been standout players and along with Toeva would make up a terrifying back three. This though leaves out players such as Muliaina and Sivivatu, again players who the selectors have kept a lot of faith with. Henry faces issues, players who have form, or players who he know he can rely upon but havent quite hit the heights he may need in WC year. Up front the ABs will be pleased by the form of Thompson, who looks to have found his mojo again after injury. It will be interesting to see Henry's selection policy come the end of the season.
Australia. I think the Ozzie's are an interesting proposition. The Brumbies are out of sorts with key players not quite finding the form they need. The Reds are playing well but are leading as other teams have struggled around them. The Force have had some highs and lows, while the Rebels have not quite found there footing yes as can be expected. What interests me most is that much of the back line for Australia are operating in positions that they won't play international rugby at! All of the seem to be playing Fly Half. The Waratahs have been inconsistent and have not quite unleashed the talent they have wide. The Reds with Cooper marshaling them and Genia on excellent form, it proves interesting selection. Where do the Brumbie players fit in? Beale, O'Connor, Ashley Cooper, Giteau are all operating at the moment in positions they wont occupy with the Australian shirt on there backs. Does Mortlock deserve a place in the squad? There seem to be more questions surrounding Australia than any other. Having said that it will be interesting to see how Deans pulls them together. Leadership is also an issue, with Elsom injured, who steps up to take his place? Genia? Is he to young to take the responsibility? Giteau? Even if he is perhaps off form and likely to be selected in his unfavoured position of 12. Deans will want to get his hands on his players soon, and get them gelled for the Tri Nations as soon as he can. They tend to time there preparation for WC's to perfection will this year be any different?
I hope to revisit this topic again come the end of the Super Rugby season. I appreciate it is only half way through but I think it is interesting to see where all three teams stand. What do you guys think?
