Springboks v All Blacks: Test Three Has Already Started

With Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry locked at 1–1, Mark Ashcroft looks beyond the team sheets ahead of Saturday’s third Test at FNB Stadium. From the war of words over the scrum to South Africa’s transformation at the breakdown, the first two Tests have given us plenty of clues, but Johannesburg may now tell us who has really learned the most.

There is something wonderfully appropriate about the third Test between South Africa and New Zealand taking place at FNB Stadium.

We started at Ellis Park, one of rugby’s great cathedrals. We moved to Cape Town and a stadium which produced a Test of very different character.

Now we arrive at the vast bowl of Soccer City in Soweto, the stadium forever associated internationally with the 2010 football World Cup and the series arrives there perfectly balanced.

New Zealand 33–16 South Africa.

South Africa 33–26 New Zealand.

One-all.

The winner on Saturday cannot quite win the series, but the loser cannot win it. As Dave Rennie succinctly put it when announcing his side, there is now “everything to play for”.

But the fascinating thing is that Test Three appears to have started several days before either side runs onto the field.

Rassie v Rennie and the scrum war

Perhaps the most intriguing subplot has been the increasingly public disagreement between Rennie and Rassie Erasmus about the Springbok scrum.

Rennie’s contention is that South Africa have sometimes been “walking around” the scrum rather than driving directly through New Zealand.

Erasmus’s response has been emphatic; saying that South Africa aren’t walking around anybody, he argues. They’re scrumming through them.

It sounds like semantics until you understand what the two coaches are actually arguing about.

Law 19 requires players to push straight and parallel to the ground. A dominant loosehead driving the opposition tighthead backwards is one thing. A loosehead moving laterally around him and causing the scrum to rotate is something different.

The difficulty for a referee is establishing cause and effect.

Did the scrum rotate because one prop moved sideways?

Or did it rotate because the opposing prop was already retreating, losing his shape or collapsing?

Rennie wants officials looking for one picture.

Erasmus wants them looking for another.

That is why this feels as much like a conversation with Saturday’s officials as a disagreement between two coaches.

Erasmus has described the accusations as an attempt to influence referees; Rennie has maintained his concerns and taken them through the appropriate World Rugby channels.

And then look at Rassie’s team selection.

Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx and Wilco Louw are back together in the starting front row.

After Erasmus switched them to the bench shortly before kick-off in Cape Town, there is no ambiguity this time.

The big guns start with Rassie saying the Cape Town switch was influenced by the weather and that Johannesburg presents different conditions.

Whatever the explanation, it gives the opening scrum on Saturday an extraordinary amount of theatre.

Watch the referee.

Watch the looseheads.

And watch what happens if the first scrum starts moving.

Remember what happened at Ellis Park

It is worth remembering why this conversation became so significant.

At Ellis Park, South Africa dominated the scrum for substantial periods. They had territory and possession and repeatedly found themselves in promising positions.

Yet New Zealand won 33–16.

Watching it, I remarked that I thought I was watching England.

Plenty of possession. Plenty of territory. A dominant set-piece.

And not enough points.

New Zealand were ruthless where South Africa weren’t.

But one statistic from that match has become increasingly important as this series has developed.

Turnovers won: New Zealand 14, South Africa five.

The Springboks also surrendered possession 23 times.

South Africa could dominate territory, but New Zealand kept finding ways of ending their possession. Afterwards, Erasmus acknowledged how effectively the All Blacks had attacked the ball in contact.

That made what happened seven days later particularly interesting.

The statistic that changed the series

In Cape Town, South Africa didn’t suddenly become a turnover machine.

They again won five.

What changed dramatically was New Zealand’s number; it fell from 14 at Ellis Park to two in Cape Town.

That is perhaps my favourite statistic from the series so far because it tells us something much more interesting than simply saying South Africa were “more physical”.

The Boks didn’t necessarily have to steal considerably more New Zealand ball.

They had to stop New Zealand stealing theirs.

And around the breakdown, South Africa looked noticeably more aggressive.

There was greater urgency around the contact area and a determination to contest New Zealand possession.

Then came Malcolm Marx and his introduction in Cape Town was one of those performances that demonstrates why the Springbok bench has become such an important tactical weapon.

His breakdown interventions helped change the momentum and produced valuable scoreboard opportunities for Cheslin Kolbe.

Now Marx starts and that must be significant; because if South Africa can combine the scrum pressure they produced at Ellis Park with the breakdown accuracy they found in Cape Town, New Zealand face a very different problem.

Rennie has responded

Rennie’s selection suggests he knows it and Asafo Aumua starts at hooker. That immediately takes me back to something former All Black Israel Dagg said before the series; he was asked which New Zealand forward needed to make an impact, Dagg highlighted Aumua.

His description was wonderfully simple:

“He’s a beast.”

At Ellis Park, Aumua came from the bench as part of a replacement front row that helped stabilise a scrum which had been under enormous Springbok pressure.

Now Rennie wants that physicality from the beginning.

George Bower and Tyrel Lomax complete the front row, while Samisoni Taukei’aho, Xavier Numia and Fletcher Newell provide the second wave.

There are changes behind them with Sam Darry starting alongside Tupou Vaa’i, who wins his 50th cap, while Peter Lakai comes into the number six jersey.

And perhaps most intriguingly, Wallace Sititi appears in the series for the first time from the bench.

This doesn’t look like panic from Rennie.

It looks like a coach trying to increase the physical resources available to him for precisely the contest South Africa are likely to create.

Then there is the rugby

It would be easy to become so consumed by scrums and breakdowns that we forget something important.

New Zealand scored four tries to South Africa’s three in Cape Town.

Even in defeat, their attacking threat was obvious. Cam Roigard remains dangerous around the fringes. Will Jordan repeatedly demonstrated what happens when he finds space. Damian McKenzie remains at full-back, while Ruben Love continues at fly-half. Leroy Carter, Jordie Barrett and Quinn Tupaea are retained.

South Africa know it too; Springbok scrum-half Morné van den Berg has spoken this week about stopping Roigard not through an individual assignment but by winning the collisions and denying New Zealand the quick ball from which he thrives.

That may be another clue as this third Test might ultimately be decided by which team gets to play its game.

South Africa want collisions, pressure, set-piece authority and scoreboard control.

New Zealand want enough quick possession to bring Roigard, Jordan, McKenzie and their wider attacking game into play.

South Africa have added another intriguing ingredient, with Damian Willemse injured, Cheslin Kolbe moves to full-back and Kurt-Lee Arendse returns on the wing. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu continues at 10.

There is plenty of attacking ambition in that backline too.

Welcome to the Calabash

Then put all of this inside FNB Stadium.

The All Blacks have played there twice before, won both times, 29–22 in 2010 and 32–16 in 2012.

But most of these Springboks have never experienced it; Rassie has already spoken about the noise, the vuvuzelas and the difficulty players can have hearing one another inside the stadium.

That could matter.

Lineout communication. Scrum calls. Defensive organisation.

Tiny details inside an enormous arena.

So that is where we have arrived after two fascinating Tests; Ellis Park told us New Zealand could absorb pressure and punish South African wastefulness.

Cape Town told us South Africa could adapt, protect their possession and turn physical pressure into points. Now Johannesburg asks the most interesting question of all.

Who has learned more?

Rennie has changed his pack.

Rassie has restored Marx, Nche and Louw to the starting front row. The scrum argument continues.

The breakdown battle has changed.

And the series stands at 1–1; and by Saturday evening, one of these sides will be heading to Baltimore capable of winning Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry.

The other will only be capable of saving it.

Test Three hasn’t started yet.

Except, of course, it already has.