Two weeks ago, we asked whether Oyonnax and Provence were beginning to turn Pro D2 into a two-team promotion race.
It seemed reasonable. Both were unbeaten after six rounds, Brive had just suffered their first defeat and the chasing pack was beginning to look rather stretched.
Two rounds later, the question remains relevant, but the story has become considerably more interesting.
Oyonnax have finally lost. Provence have notched eight victories from eight matches. Grenoble have climbed into third place, Brive have suffered three consecutive defeats and Montauban have beaten two of the competition’s early promotion favourites at Sapiac.
And at the bottom?
Nevers still haven’t won a match.
This is becoming quite a season.
Let’s start where we finished our previous Notes. Montauban.
Their 32-24 victory over Brive in Round Six ended the visitors’ unbeaten start and suggested Sapiac might once again become one of the most difficult destinations in French rugby.
A week later, however, Montauban travelled to Dax and lost 54-28.
Then Oyonnax arrived. Seven matches played. Seven victories. The best attacking record in the competition.
At half-time, Oyonnax led 20-7.
Everything appeared to be following the script, but Montauban had other ideas.
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Two converted tries shortly after the interval, from Noa Kanika-Bilonda and Enzo Hervé, turned the game around. Oyonnax briefly regained the lead, but Hervé’s late penalty secured a remarkable 24-23 victory.
Montauban had ended another unbeaten record.
Their four home matches have now produced four victories, including wins over Grenoble, Brive and Oyonnax.
Yet there is a revealing statistic behind their sixth-place position.
Despite five victories from eight matches, Montauban have a negative points difference of 31.
Their home record is perfect, but they have won only once away from Sapiac.
We no longer need to ask whether Montauban can beat the leading teams. We need to ask whether they can become a competitive away side.
For TRU, Montauban continue to provide a particularly interesting connection with British rugby.
Johnny Matthews started at hooker against Oyonnax, with Daniel Brennan and Siosifa Amone alongside him in the front row. Karl Wilkins featured in the second row, Jack Maunder at scrum-half and Joey Walton in midfield.
Matthews didn’t add to his tally of four tries, but remains an important part of Montauban’s campaign.
Readers of our earlier Notes will know why we follow his progress closely.
Matthews played National League Rugby with Sedgley Park Tigers, where he packed down alongside Max Ashcroft, before establishing himself at Glasgow and earning international recognition with Scotland.
His remarkable try-scoring record has followed him throughout that journey, but the story is now developing beyond individual statistics.
Matthews has joined a Montauban side capable of beating the strongest teams in Pro D2.
From Park Lane to Sapiac, the surroundings have changed considerably, but the enthusiasm for rugby appears to remain much the same.
While Montauban were ending Oyonnax’s unbeaten run, Provence were preparing to extend their own.
And they did so emphatically.
Their 54-3 demolition of Béziers was their most convincing performance of the season. Eight tries ensured another attacking bonus point, following a 34-24 away victory at Nissa in Round Seven.
Eight matches. Eight victories.
Provence have accumulated 34 league points, level with Oyonnax, who remain first thanks to their superior points difference.
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Oyonnax have collected five attacking bonus points compared with Provence’s two, plus a losing bonus point at Montauban.
That explains how the clubs remain level despite Provence winning one more match, but the contrast between their performances remains interesting.
Oyonnax have scored 336 points in eight matches, averaging 42 per game. Provence have scored 276. Yet Provence remain the only unbeaten team in the division.
We suggested previously that Oyonnax were demonstrating how convincingly they could win, while Provence were showing how consistently they could win.
That distinction still holds athough, after scoring 54 against Béziers, Provence have demonstrated that they can be pretty convincing themselves.
There is another club making rapid progress.
Grenoble.
After an uncertain opening three rounds, they have won five consecutive matches. Their latest victories have been particularly impressive.
First, they travelled to Brive and won 26-14. Then they returned home and beat Biarritz 24-10.
Those results lifted Grenoble to third place with 26 points, eight behind the leading pair.
And there is a particularly interesting Welsh connection.
Former Wales international fly-half Sam Davies has returned to action after a prolonged injury absence that restricted him to just two appearances last season.
Against Brive, Davies contributed 16 points with the boot. Against Biarritz, he added another nine as Grenoble scored three tries in six second-half minutes.
That’s 25 points across two significant victories.
For TRU, Davies represents another intriguing British connection with the French second division.
His experience with the Ospreys, Dragons and Wales is well established, but his recovery and Grenoble’s improving form give us a developing story worth following.
Perhaps the promotion race isn’t becoming a two-team affair after all.
Perhaps Grenoble are beginning to make their own argument.
If Grenoble are moving in the right direction, Brive are travelling the other way. Five victories from their opening five matches established them among the early promotion favourites.
Then came defeat at Montauban. Then Grenoble won at Brive. And newly promoted Narbonne delivered another blow.
Narbonne 34, Brive 26.
The result was particularly remarkable because Narbonne overcame four cards during the match and still scored five tries.
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For Brive, three consecutive defeats have left them fifth on 21 points, 13 behind the leading pair.
The presence of experienced players such as former Ireland scrum-half John Cooney, English back Jamie Shillcock and former Premiership prop Christian Judge underlines the quality available.
But experience alone isn’t delivering results.
Their next match, away at Nevers on Friday night, suddenly looks considerably more important than anyone anticipated earlier this month.
One club deserving more attention is Soyaux-Angoulême.
We identified them as a potential surprise package after the opening five rounds, and their latest results have strengthened that argument.
A 27-27 draw away at Biarritz was followed by a remarkable 49-7 demolition of Dax.
Seven tries and an attacking bonus point lifted Soyaux-Angoulême to fourth place with 22 points.
Their points difference of +82 is better than every club outside the leading two.
That is particularly impressive for a side that finished ninth last season. Whether they possess the depth to sustain a promotion challenge remains uncertain, but the top six looks increasingly realistic.
Biarritz, meanwhile, have slipped to eighth after three matches without victory. Another reminder of how quickly the picture changes in Pro D2.
We have followed Nevers since Round Four, when four defeats by a combined nine points suggested they were simply unfortunate.
That argument has disappeared.
Their latest two matches produced a 38-7 home defeat against Agen and a 41-16 loss at Aurillac.
Eight matches. Eight defeats. Four points. Bottom of the table, five points behind Béziers and eight behind Nissa.
More worrying is that their immediate rivals are collecting victories.
Agen have won three consecutive matches and climbed to ninth. Narbonne’s victory over Brive lifted them to 13th, while Colomiers have recovered sufficiently to reach 12th.
Béziers remain 15th with nine points and a points difference of -144.
Their 54-3 defeat at Provence was another damaging result. The bottom club faces direct relegation to Nationale, while 15th place means an access match against the losing Nationale finalist.
There are still 22 rounds remaining, but the challenge is becoming serious.
Our watchlist continues to include Noah Brown at Brive.
The 19-year-old second-row, standing 6ft 9in and weighing around 124kg, moved to France after opportunities in the English academy system failed to materialise.
Eligible for England and South Africa, Brown joined Brive from Gloucester on a development contract running until 2029.
He has featured in the Espoirs programme, although a senior Pro D2 appearance remains unverified.
For TRU, his journey raises an interesting question. Could Pro D2 become an alternative pathway for young British-qualified players?
It is a story we will continue monitoring.
There is one statistic worth remembering as the next round approaches.
After eight rounds, 73 per cent of Pro D2 matches have been won by the home team.
The competition has also produced 476 tries in 64 matches, an average of 7.4 per game.
That combination of attacking rugby and significant home advantage makes Thursday evening’s fixture particularly interesting.
Dax host Provence.
Dax have won all four home matches but lost all four away. Provence, meanwhile, have won everywhere. Something has to give.
Friday brings another intriguing programme.
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Oyonnax welcome fourth-placed Soyaux-Angoulême, Montauban host Narbonne and Grenoble travel to struggling Béziers.
But perhaps the most consequential fixture will be Nevers against Brive. One club has lost eight consecutive matches. The other has lost three.
Something has to change.
We began October wondering whether three unbeaten teams were beginning to dominate Pro D2.
Now only Provence remain unbeaten, Grenoble are gathering momentum and Montauban have demonstrated that even the strongest sides can be beaten at Sapiac.
The promotion race is becoming clearer in some respects, but increasingly unpredictable in others.
And we haven’t even reached November. That is precisely why Pro D2 deserves our attention.