Nations Championship: Dupont at 10, Wales vs New Zealand and England's Japan Test
An injury-hit France kick off Round Five against South Africa in Paris
©Photo by Yuichi Masuda - Nations Championship/Nations Championship via Getty Images
Round Four of the Nations Championship produced four Northern Hemisphere victories and two wins for the South.
As we head into the final two rounds, fans will be hoping for glory on Finals Day at Twickenham at the end of November.
There is plenty to look forward to in Round 5, with France and South Africa renewing their rivalry in the standout fixture of the weekend.
Elsewhere, England face former head coach Eddie Jones and Japan, while Wales have another opportunity to end their long wait for a victory over New Zealand.
Jack Marnane looks ahead to all six fixtures and makes his predictions.
France vs South Africa
This is surely the most anticipated fixture of the weekend.
France versus South Africa has produced some outstanding contests in recent years, none more memorable than the Springboks' famous 29-28 victory in the 2023 Rugby World Cup quarter-final.
Both sides sit top of their respective tables after big victories in Round 4.
However, France head into the contest with significant selection concerns. The loss of Romain Ntamack through injury, coupled with Matthieu Jalibert's unavailability, has left Fabien Galthié short of options at fly-half. His solution is a bold one, with captain Antoine Dupont handed his first start at number 10 for France.
Fellow Toulouse star Julien Marchand returns at hooker, while La Rochelle's Grégory Alldritt adds his trademark work rate and grit to the back row.
Rassie Erasmus, meanwhile, has largely stuck with the side that dismantled Italy 66-7 in Turin. Wilco Louw and Lood de Jager come into the starting XV in place of Thomas du Toit, who drops to the bench, and Salmaan Moerat, who misses out on the matchday squad. Compared with the changes made by Les Bleus, the Springboks feel far more settled.
Dupont's selection at fly-half could prove decisive. If France can play with tempo, his understanding with scrum-half Maxime Lucu could create opportunities for their dangerous backline.
However, South Africa are unlikely to allow the game to develop on France's terms and will look to disrupt their attacking rhythm through physicality and pressure.
Dupont has only featured at 10 on a handful of occasions for Toulouse. Despite his class, I expect the Springboks to target his relative inexperience in the position. In what should be a tight, physical encounter, I favour South Africa to edge it at the Stade de France.
My prediction: France 21-29 South Africa
Italy vs Argentina
Both sides will be looking to bounce back from heavy defeats in Round 4, with Italy losing to South Africa and Argentina suffering at the hands of Ireland.
Their most recent meeting came during the 2024 Autumn Nations Series, when Los Pumas ran out convincing 50-18 winners.
Italy have lost their last nine encounters with Argentina, with their most recent victory dating back to 2008. That record makes for grim reading ahead of another difficult test in Rome.
Five of the Azzurri's eight replacements from last weekend come into the starting XV, including Prem regulars Danilo Fischetti, Ross Vintcent and Stephen Varney.
Argentina are without captain Julián Montoya, who is following concussion protocols after failing his HIA against Ireland last Friday.
Los Pumas have won the last five meetings between the sides by an average of 15 points, and I expect a similar margin this weekend.
My prediction: Italy 25-40 Argentina
Wales vs New Zealand
Wales head into Saturday's encounter with the opportunity to achieve something they have not managed since 1953: beat the All Blacks.
Despite securing a bonus-point victory over Japan in Round 4, even the most optimistic Welsh supporters will recognise the scale of the challenge facing them this weekend.
Wales were competitive during the first half of last year's 52-26 defeat against New Zealand, with Tom Rogers producing a memorable hat-trick in front of the Principality Stadium crowd.
However, much like Scotland against New Zealand last weekend, they eventually found themselves on the wrong end of the All Blacks' relentless attacking game.
Gloucester duo Dewi Lake and Jac Morgan will be expected to lead from the front, while the pace of Gabe Hamer-Webb and Louis Rees-Zammit offers Wales a genuine threat out wide. The sizeable centre pairing of Max Llewellyn and Eddie James should also get Wales over the gain line and front up defensively.
New Zealand had made eight changes following their victory at Murrayfield. Prolific winger Will Jordan drops out of the matchday 23, which will come as a welcome relief to Welsh supporters, but the return of Richie Mo'unga presents a significant challenge for the home defence.
Flanker Anton Segner also earns a starting opportunity, and his battle with opposite number Jac Morgan will be a fascinating watch.
I can see a similar story unfolding on Saturday: a spirited Welsh performance that eventually comes undone as the All Blacks find space out wide. I would love to see Wales cause an upset, but New Zealand have too much quality to allow Wales to end their 73-year losing streak on Saturday.
My prediction: Wales 19-47 New Zealand
England vs Japan
After a clinical performance against an Australia side that defeated them last autumn, England turn their attention to former head coach Eddie Jones and his Japan team.
Steve Borthwick has been forced into several changes following injuries to Ollie Chessum, Seb Atkinson and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso. George Martin, Max Ojomoh and Will Joseph come into the starting side, providing opportunities for players looking to strengthen their claims ahead of next year's Rugby World Cup.
Henry Pollock is another to benefit from the reshuffle. After scoring twice against Australia, the 21-year-old is rewarded with just his second England start, this time at number eight.
Japan make just one change to their starting XV following their defeat by Wales, with Riku Tokito replacing Inoke Burua on the wing.
Jones has made no secret of the challenge facing his side. Speaking ahead of the fixture to BBC Radio 5 Live, he described Japan as "massive underdogs" and challenged his players to cause England problems by introducing chaos and disrupting their rhythm.
Footage has also emerged of Jones working on an unusual tactic with his players, drilling them to jump before contact. Whether this proves to be a genuine part of Japan's game plan or simply a little mind game ahead of Saturday remains to be seen.
The likes of Ben Gunter and captain Warner Dearns will provide physicality up front, but I expect England's pack to dominate the tight exchanges and set piece. Japan can be dangerous when given space, but I struggle to see them containing England's attacking options for 80 minutes.
I expect a comfortable home victory as Borthwick's side continue their push to finish top of the Northern Hemisphere pool.
My prediction: England 50-14 Japan
Ireland vs Fiji
Ireland are another side pushing to top their pool after an impressive 42-12 victory over Argentina. Fiji, by contrast, sit bottom of the Southern Hemisphere standings following four defeats and a points difference of -133.
The head-to-head record makes for equally difficult reading for the visitors, with Ireland winning all six previous meetings. Their most recent encounter ended in a comprehensive 52-17 victory in 2024.
Ireland have made a couple of changes following their win over Argentina. Nick Timoney moves to number eight to replace the injured Sean Jansen, with Josh van der Flier starting at openside flanker. Hat-trick hero Hugo Keenan is also ruled out, meaning Tommy O'Brien comes onto the wing and Mack Hansen moves to full-back.
Bundee Aki's return is particularly timely, with his powerful carrying game likely to be valuable against a physical Fijian defence.
Fiji's discipline and errors in the backfield proved costly against France, and similar inaccuracies could leave them chasing the game against Ireland's patient, structured phase play.
However, they are never short of attacking threats. The likes of Salesi Rayasi and Vinaya Habosi, who scored an excellent individual try against France, can create opportunities from almost anywhere, while newly capped Nathan Hughes adds considerable carrying ability at number eight.
Ireland will be keen to limit those opportunities, and I expect Andy Farrell's side to build on their performance against Argentina and secure another comprehensive victory, extending their unbeaten record against Fiji to seven matches.
My prediction: Ireland 42-10 Fiji
Scotland vs Australia
Both sides sit in the middle of their respective hemisphere pools following underwhelming results in Round 4.
Scotland have enjoyed the better of recent meetings, winning four of the last five encounters, including a 27-13 victory in 2024 when captain Sione Tuipulotu got himself on the scoresheet.
Scotland were competitive during the first half against New Zealand last week, with Ewan Ashman's first-half hat-trick keeping them in contention. However, they were eventually overwhelmed by the All Blacks after the break.
Defensive frailties remain a concern for Gregor Townsend, with Scotland conceding an average of 36 points across their last five matches.
Australia have shown similar defensive weaknesses, averaging 40 points conceded over the same period. Their lack of defensive robustness was particularly clear at Twickenham, where England ran in seven tries on their way to a bonus-point victory.
Both teams can score tries, but struggle to defend well enough to close out games.
All the signs point towards an entertaining, high-scoring encounter. Finn Russell will once again lead Scotland’s attacking efforts, with Blair Kinghorn and Darcy Graham returning to the starting XV.
Australia have recalled Carter Gordon at fly-half. Jeremy Williams moves to lock, Rob Valetini returns to the starting side and Harry Potter comes in on the wing. Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i shifts to centre following Isaac Henry’s injury.
Lukhan Salakaia-Loto drops out, while Brandon Paenga-Amosa, Lachlan Shaw and Tom Hooper return to the bench.
Les Kiss will be looking for a response from his side after three consecutive defeats, but for me, I can't see past a home win on Sunday.
My prediction: Scotland: 42-36 Australia
