The Rugby Championship 2015: Round One Preview

Ahead of the opening weekend of the Rugby Championship, Talking Rugby Union previews Round One’s encounters.

New Zealand vs Argentina – Christchurch

Christchurch will host the first game of the 2015 Rugby Championship as the All Blacks take on Argentina.

New Zealand have never lost to the Pumas, but it certainly won’t be a walkover as Argentina continue to be an improving side.

The All Blacks were very rusty and disjointed against Manu Samoa and players such as Israel Dagg, Keven Mealamu and Tony Woodcock, who got their chance last week, will certainly have to perform better to keep their place in this New Zealand side.

New Zealand are missing key men who are being rested after a long Super Rugby campaign, but their strength in depth has allowed them to field a strong team for their latest encounter with Argentina.

Aaron Smith, Ben Smith, Conrad Smith, Dane Coles and Julian Savea are all absent, but the likes of Dan Carter, Richie McCaw, TJ Perenara and Waisake Naholo all feature.

Carter spared New Zealand’s blushes last week in Samoa and in doing so, put himself in pole position for the Number 10 shirt as we edge nearer to the start of the World Cup. It will be intriguing to see how he performs with Perenara alongside him at scrum-half.

Naholo is set to make his debut after an impressive season for the Highlanders but how will he cope on the big stage? He may feel like he is out of his comfort zone with fellow Highlanders Ben Smith, Aaron Smith and Malaki Fekitoa not around him.

Amongst the replacements is Crusaders hooker Codie Taylor who is also likely to win his first All Blacks cap. You would have to say even though Sam Whitelock is missing, this is a very strong forward pack which New Zealand have at their dispense.

In terms of Argentina, they have named three Rugby Championship debutants in their starting XV for this tournament opener.

Winger Santiago Cordero, No.8 Facunda Isa and the impressive young lock Guido Petti Pagadizabal have all been included and they all have Test experience.

Overall, Coach Daniel Hourcade's 23 man squad is experienced and 15 of them have signed up to play for the country’s Super Rugby franchise next season. Nine are in the starting XV, including the ever present Marcos Ayerza, Captain Agustin Creevy and loose forward Juan Martin Fernandez Loobe.

Hourcade has stated that his side will be expecting a backlash from the All Blacks after their performance against Samoa, as the Pumas go in search of their first victory at the 12^th attempt in New Zealand.

The Argentines after improved year after year since the 2011 Rugby World Cup and that was highlighted with their win over Australia in last year’s Rugby Championship and also wins away from home against Italy and France in November.

Head to Head

The teams have played each other 20 times, with the All Blacks winning 19 and drawing once in 1986.  The average score between these teams is 41-13 to the All Blacks.

TRU’s Scott Donaldson’s Verdict

Given the cold and damp conditions, don’t expect a massive win for the All Blacks, but hopefully they reduce their mistakes from the Samoa game.  The forward battle will be exciting, but the All Blacks pose too much of a threat out-wide even without Ben Smith and Julian Savea.  Argentina need to improve their attack if they are to threaten the All Blacks, or at least find a way of stopping the All Blacks from scoring.

My pick: All Blacks by 16 points

New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Ma'a Nonu, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Charles Piutau, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 TJ Perenara; 1 Tony Woodcock, 2 Keven Mealamu, 3 Owen Franks, 4 Luke Romano, 5 Brodie Retallick, 6 Jerome Kaino, 7 Richie McCaw, 8 Kieran Read.

Replacements: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Nepo Laulala, 19 Jeremy Thrush, 20 Liam Messam, 21 Andy Ellis, 22 Colin Slade, 23 Ryan Crotty.

Argentina: 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Horacio Agulla, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Jeronimo De la Fuente, 11 Santiago Cordero, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Tomas Cubelli; 1 Marcos Ayerza, 2 Agustin Creevy (captain), 3 Ramiro Herrera, 4 Manuel Carizza, 5 Guido Petti Pagadizabal, 6 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 7Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, 8 Facundo Isa.

Replacements: 16 Julian Montoya, 17 Lucas Noguera, 18 Nahuel Chaparro Tetaz, 19 Benjamin Macome, 20 Javier Ortega Desio, 21 Martin Landajo, 22 Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias, 23 Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino.

Australia vs South Africa - Brisbane

With the entire Southern Hemisphere spotlight on New Zealand heading into the World Cup, it could be easy to forget what chance Australia and South Africa have of lifting the Webb Ellis Trophy at Twickenham this autumn.

This will be an intriguing battle on Saturday when you consider both sides have ran the All Blacks close in recent matches, but just haven’t been able to put a complete performance together to match the best team in the world.

Australia have selected a familiar 22 man squad, with the main surprise being that David Pocock has been named as a replacement with Michael Hooper starting at open-side flanker. 

There will also be a lot of interest in the new look Wallabies back line with the experience of Matt Giteau and Will Genia returning to start. They may well prove to be a calming influence on fly-half Quade Cooper and their fellow team-mates as they look to move back into the top five in the world rankings.

Cooper will be embroiled in a battle with South Africa’s number 10, Handre Pollard, as both will showcase their immense abilities with the ball.

Pollard will have the youthful Damian de Allendre and Jess Kriel playing behind him in the midfield whilst Bryan Habana and Willie Le Roux will look to wreak havoc in this Rugby Championship.

Schalk Burger is in at Number Eight for the injured Duane Vermeulen and will play in a very well balanced back row which includes Francois Louw and Marcell Coetzee.

The Springboks looked good in dispatching the World XV in preparation for this competition, while the Wallabies have had a limited build up to this test match.  It is hard to know how much to read into this.

Head to Head

The Wallabies have a good home record against the Springboks, winning 22 from 35 games.  They won the last game between these teams last year, although the last time these teams played on this ground, in 2013, the Springboks won convincingly. The Wallabies have won five of the last six games in Australia between these two teams.  Overall, the Springboks have a healthy lead, including winning four of the last five games between these teams, even if most of these were in South Africa. 

TRU’s Scott Donaldson’s Verdict

It is difficult to know how the experimental chopping and changing will go, with both midfields unproven.  We think the Wallabies will be underdone, without a decent game before this test match.  We saw how some Super Rugby players were underdone for the All Blacks vs Samoa and we think that Wallabies lack of a test before this match might put them on the back foot.

My pick: Springboks by six points.

Australia: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Matt Giteau, 11 Rob Horne, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia, 8 Scott Higginbotham, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Will Skelton, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Stephen Moore (capt), 1 James Slipper.

Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Scott Sio, 18 Greg Holmes, 19 James Horwill, 20 David Pocock, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Matt Toomua, 23 Drew Mitchell.

South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Bryan Habana,10 Handre Pollard, 9 Ruan Pienaar; 1 Tendai Mtawarira, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 5 Victor Matfield (captain), 6 Francois Louw, 7 Marcell Coetzee, 8 Schalk Burger. 

Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Heinke van der Merwe, 18 Frans Malherbe, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Oupa Mohoje, 21 Cobus Reinach, 22 Pat Lambie, 23 Lwazi Mvovo.         

Who are you picking to win the Rugby Championship Round 1 games?