Aviva Premiership club trajectories 16-17

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The summer tours are over, the draws for the Champions and Challenge Cups have been made and the 2016/17 Aviva Premiership season is knocking on the door.

Clubs have been recruiting heavily over the past year to ensure that they are in the best possible place for the next campaign and we take stock of which clubs have taken big steps forwards, which are treading water and some who may have given up ground to their rivals.

Better things expected

East Midlands rivals Leicester Tigers and Northampton Saints took the bull by the horns this past season and made waves with their signings for the ‘16/17 season. Leicester will bolster a rejuvenated back line that has come on leaps and bounds under Aaron Mauger, with two world class additions in the forms of Matt Toomua and JP Pietersen. Likewise, Northampton have solidified an area of their team that was lacking last season – front-foot ball – with the capture of French number eight Louis Picamoles.

Northampton have also replaced Kahn Fotuali’i with Nic Groom of the Stormers and Leicester have snapped up impressive hooker George McGuigan to fill the void left by the departing Leonardo Ghiraldini. In addition, young players such as Harry Mallinder, Will Evans and Ellis Genge are all better for their experiences in the ‘15/16 season and both clubs should make a more concerted push for the title in 2017.

Exeter Chiefs are another side who have strengthened well, whilst also being set to benefit from a number of younger players developing and maturing. The Australian duo of Greg Holmes and Dave Dennis arrive in the South-West, whilst Ollie Devoto makes the relatively short trip from Bath. With no significant first team departures and young players ready to step into the shoes of the departing depth players, Exeter look in good shape to make another run on the title.

No one is putting Worcester Warriors in the ‘title chasers’ category just yet, but they are another side that has improved over the offseason. Ben Te’o leads the way amongst those new arrivals and midseason additions of Dewald Potgieter and Francois Hougaard should have an even larger impact with increased familiarity in their new surroundings.

Treading water

It seems brutal to put Premiership and European champions Saracens in a category titled ‘treading water’ but the reality is that they will be hard pressed to replicate that achievement again this season. The signings of Schalk Burger, Savenaca Rawaca and Vincent Koch stand out in particular and should help the club mitigate the plethora of players they lose to England duty at two periods during the season.

Wasps have strengthened impressively this offseason, notably bringing back their former fly-half Danny Cipriani and welcoming versatile Australian back Kurtley Beale, but it’s difficult to underestimate the impact the departing pair of George Smith and Charles Piutau had on the club. They were at the centre of Wasps’ drive to Premiership and European prominence last season and assuming that the new additions will step straight in and make up for their loss is a bold one.

It will be a challenge for Bath to be any worse than they were this past season. Jack Walker, Taulupe Faletau and Luke Charteris all bolster a pack that looked ineffective during the last campaign and should help make up for the losses of Stuart Hooper, Alafoti Faosiliva and Leroy Houston. The departures of Ollie Devoto, Horacio Agulla and Kyle Eastmond (confirmation yet to be received) in the back line have gone largely unaddressed and with a new coach set to arrive, the ‘16/17 season could be another frustrating affair for Bath fans.

Harlequins have definitely shied away from making a big splash with their recruitment, relying instead on their ever-impressive academy to take them to the next level. The likes of Joe Marchant, Archie White and James Chisholm should all push for game-time next season, as should arriving full-back, Aaron Morris. The long-term prospects may look bright for Quins but it is debatable whether they will push back up into playoff contention this season.

Backwards steps

Sale Sharks are in this category but with a significant caveat. Every year the Sharks lose key players and replace them with cheaper, savvy pick-ups and Steve Diamond manages to keep the team competitive in the Premiership. There’s no reason to doubt that this season will be any different, but with Cipriani, Tommy Taylor, Vadim Cobilas and Mark Easter all departing, as well as Juandre Kruger pulling out of a move to the North-West, the omens are not great. Rugby League convert Josh Charnley should flourish in Sale’s width-heavy game but they will be up against it to ensure Champions Cup qualification again for the ‘17/18 season.

Bath took the headlines in the South-West for disappointing last season and took some of the heat off of Gloucester’s continued sub-par performances. Scotland international Matt Scott and the Super Rugby pair of Motu Matu’u and Josh Hohneck all arrive at Kingsholm this season but will it be enough to make them consistently competitive again? It’s hard to see.

After narrowly edging out London Irish in the relegation battle last season, Newcastle Falcons will have to be ready to be embroiled in another one heading into 2017. Worcester have improved and Bristol have a squad and resources which vastly surpass that of most teams being promoted from the Greene King IPA Championship. Vereniki Goneva will add try-scoring threat on Newcastle’s plastic pitch but given the improvements made by the teams around them, Falcons will be up against it again this season.

Ok, Bristol can’t really go backwards having not been in the Premiership last season, but the step up in level of competition will take some acclimatising to. Experienced additions like Samoan fly-half Tusi Pisi and long-time Premiership rugby servant Jordan Crane will help, but losing talented individuals like Ellis Genge and Marco Mama will not.

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