The Aviva Premiership's relegation battle

The 2015/16 Aviva Premiership season has now reached the halfway mark, with all teams save Bath and Sale having played 11 of their 22 matches.

Unlike last season, when London Welsh were already as good as relegated at this point in the season, there is a real battle to avoid the drop going on between three teams, but possibly four should results go against the team currently sitting in ninth, Bath.

It seems impossible that Bath can be talked about in a relegation battle given their place in the Premiership final last season, but with just six points separating them from bottom-placed Newcastle Falcons (albeit with a game in hand for Bath), they have to at least be mentioned as candidates.

Chances are that Bath’s quality will show out over the remainder of the season and though they look far off the playoffs or even a European Champions Cup qualifier spot, they should have enough about them to see off the threat of relegation, leaving it as a likely three-horse race between Newcastle, London Irish and Worcester Warriors.

Irish, who were bottom coming into the weekend, earned themselves a moment to breathe as they triumphed over Worcester, 20-13, at the Madejski Stadium. The win sees them swap places with Newcastle, and though the side from the north-east sit level with Irish on 12 points, they are consigned to the foot of the table due to their one less win than the Exiles. Worcester are currently in 10^th with 13 points.

The pressure will not be removed from Irish for long however, as they still have to play both Newcastle and Worcester away from home in the second half of the Premiership season. Irish have lost all five of their away Premiership matches so far this season and haven’t been able to surpass 14 points scored in any of those games, which contributes heavily to their league-worst points differential of -156 points. Those trips to Sixways and Kingston Park will almost certainly dictate Irish’s fate this season.

One other factor working in the favour of Newcastle and Worcester is that they have Directors of Rugby who are accustomed to the rigours and complexities of a relegation battle. Worcester and Dean Ryan faced this scenario in the 2013-14 season, ultimately slipping down to the Greene King IPA Champinship for a season but learning plenty in the meantime, whilst Newcastle have finished 11^th for the last two seasons under Dean Richards, successfully avoiding relegation on both occasions.

Tom Coventry doesn’t have the same experience and whilst it’s not as an important a factor as remaining fixtures or playing personnel available, it is something which could still have a significant bearing on the outcome.

Brief stints in the Championship certainly seemed to help Harlequins and Northampton Saints clear the decks and build new teams that would go on to win the Premiership title, but for every story of success, there is a Bristol or Yorkshire Carnegie. Both teams have been mired in second tier following their relegations from the Premiership.

Given the increasing money in the Premiership and widening gulf between it and the Championship, whichever side does ultimately go down this season runs the risk of being left behind by the Premiership teams, even if they should manage to return to the competition at the first time of asking in 2016/17.

Eyes may naturally be drawn to the top of the table but the battle at the bottom is shaping up to be just as compelling this season and there are undoubtedly a number of twists in the tale yet to come.