World Rugby U20 Championship preview
U20s World Rugby Cup
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When the England U20 side secured a Six Nations Grand Slam earlier this year, they looked for all money as if they would head to the World Rugby U20 Championship as red-hot favourites to retain the title they won in 2016.
Except for a tough test against Ireland at Donnybrook, England cruised their way through the tournament, showing all the dimensions and abilities of a side that may very well be the best that England has ever had at U20 level.
Since then, however, both New Zealand and South Africa – the only other sides to have ever won the U20 Championship – have come on strong in their preparations for the tournament, with New Zealand lifting the Oceania Rugby U20 Championship and South Africa looking dangerous in an assortment of pre-tournament warm-up matches.
Throw into the mix England have lost four of the brightest talents from their Six Nations-winning side – Joe Cokanasiga, Nick Isiekwe, Ben Curry and Tom Curry – to the England senior team, as well as the eligible Jack Maunder, and you have a tournament that has been blown wide open.
We assess the runners and riders below and make some predictions on the how the championship could go.
Pool A – Australia, England, Samoa and Wales
Whilst Australia and Wales have the capability to provide stern challenges to England, it’s a pool that the three-time champions will feel confident about topping.
The losses of the Curry twins have been mitigated by the return to fitness of Ben Earl in the back row and there is strong competition for places at scrum-half and wing, easing the losses of Maunder and Cokanasiga respectively.
The one loss that does significantly weaken England, however, is that of Isiekwe. England’s lineout had been patchy at best during the Six Nations and his ability at the set-piece really helped the revolving door of hookers that England were forced to go through. The reigning champions do have adept locks to turn to in his place, but none that can replicate his impact in both the tight and the loose.
Wales have a talented crop at their disposal this season, but this tournament may be coming a year too soon for them. As is often the case at U20 level, teams tend to operate in two-year cycles and this Welsh side is on a path to peak next season and they will be a far more formidable prospect in 2018. The likes of Rhys Carre, Ryan Conbeer, Ben Jones and Will Jones are at the core of that two-year plan.
It’s hard to see Australia diverging from their well-trod path at this tournament and that’s to come in with optimism and plenty of individual talents, but to ultimately find themselves fighting it out in the 5th/6th or 7th/8th place playoffs come the tournament’s conclusion.
Players such as Izaia Perese and Sione Tuipulotu catch the eye, having made an impact in Super Rugby this season, whilst N8 Reece Hewat and hooker Efitusi Maafu certainly have something about them, but it will be an uphill battle for Australia to make the semi-finals.
As for Samoa, their only goal will be to avoid relegation back to the second tier, the Junior World Trophy, and whilst their pool games will be important, it is their playoff matches against the likes of Georgia or Italy, that will decide the success of their campaign.
Prediction – Expect England to top the pool, but to be given a bumpy ride by Wales and Australia. A best runner-up could emerge from this pool, but it seems unlikely, with Pool B potentially an easier source of points for sides.
Pool B – Ireland, Italy, New Zealand and Scotland
If it were not for Ireland missing Cillian Gallagher, Bill Johnston and Jordan Larmour to injury, they could have been a dark horse to top this pool. As it is, the squad, which also sees Johnny McPhillips and Tommy O’Brien miss out through injury, would do very well to make the semi-finals as a best runner-up.
Scotland will be the biggest challenge to that goal and though the results from the Six Nations were poor for John Dalziel’s men, there was plenty of promise at an individual level, with the likes of Tom Dodd, Matt Fagerson, Darcy Graham and Callum Hunter-Hill all distinguishing themselves.
Any route to the semi-finals for Ireland or Scotland involves beating the other solidly, minimising damage against New Zealand and then bolstering the points difference against Italy, who will, like Samoa, have the success of their championship decided by their ability to avoid relegation or not.
Ireland have done well against New Zealand at U20 level of late but with their injuries and the strength of the New Zealand side, the five-time champions are a very, very solid bet to top Pool B.
Even without Jordie Barrett, who has been retained by the Hurricanes – and, perhaps, the All Blacks – New Zealand are in very healthy shape to win back a title they have only managed to secure once in their last five attempts.
New Zealand swept through the Oceania Championship, posting 60 and 80 points on Fiji and Samoa respectively, before waltzing to a 43-6 victory over Australia in Queensland.
Tiaan Falcon is the latest prodigiously talented fly-half to don the age-grade silver and black, captain Luke Jacobson has a little Kieran Read about him and Isaia Walker-Leawere is a player who can join the All Blacks’ vaunted group of locks sooner rather than later.
It’s a strong group with competition at most positions and head coach Craig Philpott will be confident his side can go toe-to-toe with England and South Africa this year.
Prediction – Barring an upset of epic proportions, New Zealand will top the pool. Ireland vs Scotland in round two of the tournament will decide if one of the two Home Nations can sneak into the semi-finals and try bonus points and points difference could be particularly important in this pool.
Pool C – Argentina, France, Georgia and South Africa
On paper, this may be the most appetising pool. Any one of Argentina, France or South Africa has the capability to top the group and the home support factor could help Georgia prove to be more competitive than Samoa or Italy will be in their respective pools.
If you take away their Six Nations opener, where they were humbled by England at Sandy Park, France had a reasonable enough tournament. They narrowly lost in Ireland and only managed a one-score win over Italy in Cagliari, but they were impressive at home, comfortably dispatching Scotland and Wales. You could see the potential of the side in those games and if they come unstuck this summer, it will not be due to a lack of talent.
It is a horrible cliché, but mentality, as well as conditioning, will decide how competitive France are with Argentina and South Africa over the coming weeks.
Despite losing to Argentina last season, South Africa should enter the pool as favourites, boasting a squad that has a good blend of experience at this level, physicality and technical skill. With England’s and New Zealand’s high-profile missing men, the Baby Boks also arguably boast the star name of the tournament, Curwin Bosch.
Bosch has been key to a revitalised Sharks side this season and will take his place in the XV alongside former schoolboy standouts Salmaan Moerat and Damian Willemse, as well as captain Ernst van Rhyn, dangerous winger Yaw Penxe and dynamic flanker Zain Davids.
As South African sides go, this may be the most talented they have had since they won the tournament in 2012.
Argentina will not make things easy for Chean Roux’s side, though, with several key contributors to their 3rd place finish in 2016 returning, including powerhouse lock Marcos Kremer. Bautista Delguy and Tomas Malanos are also among those returning, but there is plenty of turnover up front and it’s difficult to predict how they will go against the very powerful tight fives of France and South Africa.
Georgia’s ability – or not – to be competitive on home soil could end up being something that decides this pool and though they are realistically on track for three defeats, points difference could be decisive for three teams as closely matched as Argentina, France and South Africa.
Prediction – The pool definitely has the potential to be close and any one of three emerging atop the log, but this is a serious South African side and one that has the capability to beat teams in multiple ways, something which we have not always been able to say of the Baby Boks. A French capitulation, something which is not too improbable, could hand a best runner-up spot to Argentina, but Les Bleus should be competitive, potentially handing the advantage in that best runner-up spot race to Ireland or Wales.
