Where now for London Irish

After flirting with relegation all season long, the worst was all but confirmed for London Irish when they lost 13-6 to Newcastle Falcons in Round 20 of the Aviva Premiership.

The loss left the side from Reading seven points adrift at the bottom of the table with just two games left to go. They need to take at least seven points from their two remaining games (Harlequins (h), Wasps (a)) to have any chance of survival, also requiring Newcastle to take no points from their two final fixtures (Saracens (a), Sale Sharks (h)).

So, where, presuming they do drop down to the Greene King IPA Championship, do the Exiles go from here and can they bounce back to the heights which once saw them challenging for the Premiership title?

After all, both Harlequins and Northampton Saints have endured the ignominy of relegation in recent years, only to rise from the ashes and claim English rugby’s grandest prize shortly after. Quins were relegated at the conclusion of the 2004/05 season, secured immediate promotion back to the Premiership and then lifted the trophy in 2011/12. Likewise, Northampton were relegated in 2006/07, also returned to the competition the next season and then, after previously coming close, secured the title in 2013/14.

Therefore, can Irish bounce back, return to the Premiership at the first time of asking and then begin a phase of development that ultimately sees them lift the trophy at Twickenham five or so seasons later?

The answer is yes, but only if they pay heed to the advice which Harlequins and Northampton have given freely during their short stints in the Championship. The game is a different one to the one it was when Quins and Saints were relegated, with more money and player movement than ever before, but the lessons of those two sides still bear harkening to.

Quins dominated the Championship (then National One) in the 2005/06 season, having cut loose a number of veteran players, many of whom fell under the categories of overrated and/or overpaid. This clearing of the decks helped streamline Quins and set them on the path to successfully rebuilding the club. There was no fire sale, key leaders such as Will Greenwood and Andre Vos were retained, but opportunities were created for the club’s younger players.

Mike Brown and Chris Robshaw made their debuts in the 2005/06 season, as did former Harlequins Tom Guest, George Robson and Jordan Turner-Hall, all five of whom played pivotal roles in Quins’ Premiership title in 2011/12. The then-recently acquired Nick Easter was also identified as a leader and player to build around, laying the foundations for the club’s future post-Tony Diprose.

Northampton also dominated the second tier of English rugby during their stint in 2007/08, going undefeated through the campaign and, like Quins, identified a core of players to build around and develop once they returned to the Premiership.

Chris Ashton made his debut, fellow rugby league convert Stephen Myler was given the opportunity to become a union fly-half and talismanic hooker Dylan Hartley was anointed as the successor to Steve Thompson. Thompson and fellow Rugby World Cup-winner Ben Cohen were among the departures from Franklin’s Gardens following relegation and whilst significant losses, represented the clearing of the decks that preceded and expedited Northampton’s rise back to the top of English rugby.

It is also worth noting that Northampton committed to a new head coach in Jim Mallinder following their relegation.

Now Irish are faced with the tough goal of identifying which players to build around moving forward and then trying their upmost to retain them ahead of their likely trip to the Championship. Quins kept hold of players like Greenwood and Ugo Monye, whilst Saints did the same with Myler and Hartley. With the gap in quality between the Premiership and Championship bigger than ever, and tier one test players unlikely to keep their places in international teams in the Championship, it will be an unenviable task.

Scotland back rower Blair Cowan has hinted he may have to leave, whilst fellow internationals Sean Maitland, Ben Franks and Asaeli Tikoirotuma will also likely garner a lot of interest from other clubs around Europe. Key for Irish will be retaining the likes of Alex Lewington, Matt Symons, Tom Smallbone and Johnny Williams, who could play similar roles for Irish as those played by Monye, Ashton and co. for Quins and Saints.

Fly-half Theo Brophy Clews saw Premiership action this season and is a talented prospect who could, if retained and given playing opportunities in the Championship, solve a long-term problem position for Irish. The Exiles are also coming off a season where their U18 side won the Premiership Academy League and prospects like Joe Cokasaniga, Isaac Curtis-Harris and Rory Brand are all capable of making an impact in the Championship as teenagers.

As for their coach, Irish would be wise to retain Tom Coventry. The club may have overplayed at times this season in their (or Coventry’s) eagerness to play a more expansive game, a style which has long been perfected by Coventry’s former side, the Chiefs, but he is the perfect man to stamp an ambitious brand of rugby on the club and develop them moving forward. If he can rebuild the club from the foundations up and turn them into a competitive Premiership side, playing his style of rugby, then he will have more than made up for any potential naiveties in his debut campaign at the club.

Time will now tell if the players Irish have already signed up for the 2016/17 season honour their commitments, but one signing who will be the focus of more attention than most is the Hurricanes’ James Marshall. If he does make the trip, it will be an interesting parallel to Quins and Saints’ stints in the Championship, where they also had Kiwi fly-halves in Andrew Mehrtens and Carlos Spencer respectively. The difference in quality is significant, however the addition of Marshall would be a very welcome boon for Irish.

The inevitable clearing of the decks will understandably cause panic amongst Irish’s fans but a trip down to the second tier is not solely a punishment, but also a golden opportunity to stop painting over the cracks, and to instead rebuild the foundations upon which the club rests.

The likely delays to the club finding a more suitable home and spending (at least) a year unable to attract the better talent available may both be detrimental in the short-term, but with a forward-thinking coach and a plethora of young talent with the potential to play at the Premiership level, this is unlikely to be the end for London Irish, rather it could be just the beginning.