Champions Cup Pool Analysis

The pools for the 2015/16 Champions Cup were drawn last week and whilst a lot of things can change between now and the start of the competition later this year, it looks to be the most competitive European tournament yet.

The decision to slim the tournament down to 20 sides (from 24 in the Heineken Cup) during its rebirth this past season has been vindicated by five extraordinarily challenging pools, none of which are easy to call at this stage.

As we know from past tournaments, topping your group and amassing yourself a points tally worthy of winning you a home quarter-final is usually key to making a run to the final.

Well, that goal looks more difficult than ever this season.

Pool 1 boasts Aviva Premiership champions Saracens, Guinness Pro 12 contenders Ulster and two Top 14 sides, Toulouse and Oyonnax. The trio of Saracens, Ulster and Toulouse will all be optimistic about their chances of topping the pool, but as we have seen from Oyonnax this past season, they will not roll over for these sides, despite their rivals’ more established European pedigree.

Saracens and Ulster are known forces and the advantage goes slightly to the side from the Premiership, but it could be Toulouse who, in the post-Guy Novès era, dictates how the pool ends up. Toulouse have been regressing of late and it will be interesting to see how they adapt to a new coach, but if there is a significantly troublesome transitional period, Pool 1 could be a possibility to provide two qualifiers.

On to Pool 2 and we see Clermont Auvergne and the Ospreys go head-to-head, with Exeter Chiefs returning for just their third campaign amongst Europe’s elite, and fast-rising Bordeaux-Bègles completing the quartet. The heartache of domestic and European failure will still be haunting Clermont, but this draw may be the silver lining their ailing fan base needs.

Both Exeter and Bordeaux are clubs on the up with an exciting group of players, but they are still inexperienced at this level, something which Clermont will look to exploit. As for the Ospreys, they have shown over the last few years that, whilst not to be taken lately, they do not have the depth required to make a successful run on the knockout stages.

Pool 3 consists of Pro 12 winners Glasgow Warriors, Northampton Saints, Racing 92 and Scarlets, and is as difficult to call as any this season. Glasgow will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing European campaign last season, whilst Northampton and Racing will both also want to redress frustrating quarter-final losses.

Top seeds Glasgow will obviously pose a threat, but they will need to be wary of the powerful tight fives of Northampton and Racing, both of whom have the back lines capable of making any dominance up front count. Though the Scarlets face a daunting challenge to get anything out of the pool, they have shown in recent years that they are usually good for a scalp or two and their matches at Parc y Scarlets will certainly help dictate the winner of the pool.

There may be no public admission of this, but Stade Français, Munster and Leicester Tigers will all be delighted they’ve drawn Benetton Treviso in Pool 4. Providing those three sides play to their potential, the home and away fixtures with Treviso should at least account for two wins and eight points, but given the Italian side’s recent form in the competition, a bonus point at home should also be the minimum requirement.

Stade are the (re)emerging force in the group, having just lifted the Bouclier de Brennus, as well as welcoming some significant firepower to Paris next season, but neither Munster nor Leicester will be at all overawed by that fact. Thomond Park and Welford Road remain two of the most difficult places to win as an away side in Europe, but key losses to playing personnel for both sides does seem to shift the balance of power in the pool in favour of the French side.

The draw served up something special for the last pool, depositing Bath, Toulon, Leinster and Wasps into the most lethal of groups of death. The teams have combined for nine top tier European trophies and all made it to the quarter-final stage of the 2014/15 competition.

Despite how competitive the group will undoubtedly be, Toulon will be early favourites given the quite incredible array of talent being assembled at the Stade Mayol next season, but their bid to win four European trophies in a row took a big blow with this draw.

The trio of Bath, Leinster and Wasps are all capable of upsetting Toulon’s star-studded squad on their home grounds, whilst both Leinster and Wasps showed last season that Toulon can be rattled in France, too. Bath may be developing a squad capable of upsetting the odds and winning this pool, but the smart money is still surely on the men from the south of France.

For the neutral, the draw is certainly one to be celebrated, and with the possible exception of Pool 2, where Clermont look to rule the roost, there are three teams in each pool with realistic hopes of making it to the summit and qualifying for the quarter-finals.

Picking potential quarter-finalists is tricky at this stage, but Clermont, Saracens and Stade Français all look to be in reasonably good positions to top their groups and likely secure home ties in the first knockout round, but it’s hard to call beyond that.

Toulon could well emerge from the daunting Pool 5, but it may cost them a home quarter-final, potentially making them more vulnerable than they have been at any point over the last three years.

However, the one thing we do know for certain is that the 2015/16 Champions Cup looks to be one of the best European tournaments to date and will offer up a feast of compelling and competitive rugby throughout.