Aviva Premiership Predictions - Who's Your Money On?

Well Talking Rugby Union readers it’s been a while but I’m over the moon to be back, and for your amusement I’m going to start off with my predictions for the coming season. The last prediction I made for TRU was that Harlequins would finish the season in fifth place, which was back in 2011, the year Quins won the Premiership. So this could be fun! Add this page to your favourites, save it or print it off and then come the end of the season we can have a laugh at just how accurate my predictions were. I have set it out in the order I think they will finish this season to give you an idea of what I think the table may look like, with the Champions first and those relegated last. Enjoy.

Saracens

Last season; Lost in the play offs
The signings of Billy Vunipola, James Johnston and the highly rated Jersey prop Richard Barrington add considerable weight to an already physical pack. Tomkins has a chance to press his claims for international honours further and will be the key to creativity in the backline. Sarries will also be very keen to turn Allianz Park into a fortress of strength. Home form combined with a physical squad should be more than enough for Saracens to steam roll their way to being Aviva Premiership Champions.

Leicester Tigers

Last season; Champions
Cockerill’s absence from the touch line combined with new scrum rules mean it could be a tough start to the season for Leicester Tigers. The strength of their squad and home form will mean they will always be there, or thereabouts though, and they look to have enough firepower to remain competitive in the Heineken Cup without being side-tracked in the Premiership. They know what it takes to win and will quickly find a way to use the new scrum rules to their advantage. Leicester have a proven formula, they have enjoyed great success in the previous years and there is nothing to suggest this year will be any different. I can see them on the wrong side of an upset in the play offs though.

Northampton

Last season; runners up.
Northampton’s loss to Leicester in the final is going to really hurt. This will fuel them and their captain especially. Their first XV which includes England full back Ben Foden, the Pisi brothers, Courtney Lawes and potential England captain Tom Wood has been given new energy by the arrivals of George North (yes him), Khan Fotuali’l and Alex Corbisiero. Their best side is as good as any but with injuries and international call ups, just how often will they be able to field this side? There are also niggling doubts over discipline that needs to be addressed. They need to make hay while their first choice XV is fully fit and available; that momentum combined with the brilliant Alex King at the helm should take them to the play offs.

Harlequins

Last season; third.
Kennedy is a brilliant signing and a big loss now out injured for the first part of the season. Sackey may not be first choice, but together they can still offer a young squad a lot of experience and help those that won the LV Cup last season to put in similar performances in the Aviva Premiership. A tough group in the Heineken Cup and questions over their squad strength at that level means they will probably have plenty of time to focus on the Premiership, the youth in the squad will be hungry for tries and the more experienced players will want to show Gatland what he missed on the Lions tour. A loss to Saracens in the final but I’m confidently predicting a playoff win.

Gloucester

Last season; Fifth.
With Nigel Davies at the helm, and in the second year of a strong recruitment policy (even if there is a few too many going out the door than he and Ryan Walkinshaw would perhaps like) to finish the season in fifth is an absolute minimum. They have strength in depth in key positions such as the backrow and at scrum half, along with a host of try scorers on the wing. The Cherry and Whites boast a young English backline that has a better balance to it than most, what they need is good ball. Kvesic and new captain Tom Savage must be selfless in their approach to games, win the ball, and then give it to the glory boys. Next season will be their time to upset a settled top four.

Bath

Last season; Seventh.
To miss out on Heineken Cup rugby for a second year in a row is a big blow to everyone involved in Bath rugby. They have reacted well though to strengthen a pack that looked a little weak at times last year. Add to that, they now look spoilt for choice in the back division with a settled coaching team under Gary Gold and they are in a very good position indeed. There is a very good opportunity for Bath to come away with some silverware in at least the LV Cup. In the Premiership Bath should finish in sixth, a lot of new faces in the squad could take some time to gel, while Gary Gold will have to think hard about who his best team is.

London Wasps

Last season; Eighth.
Wasp’s fans will feel that if it wasn’t for some key losses in the pack they may be looking at top six finish this season. They may well be right but they still have plenty to be pleased about, the club is on the way back from financial ruin and won’t be worrying about relegation this season. They have a settled backline with wingers that pretty much guarantee them tries; one old hand replaces another at fly half with Andy Goode replacing Stephen Jones while shrewd signings in the pack will be competitive with most sides around them. Dai Young will know this is another season of rebuilding, on and off the pitch; they should be unbothered by the shadow of relegation but lack the strength to trouble the top four.

Exeter Chiefs

Last season; Sixth.
This season was always going to be close with one team suffering and unfortunately that could well be the Chiefs. I have to say I do have a soft spot for a team that has brought so much to the Premiership. Exeter have recruited well, plenty of top level experience is coming in and Fetu’u Vainikolo is an inspired signing but when you compare them against immediate rivals for a Heineken Cup spot, Bath and Gloucester, they come up short. They are settled on and off the pitch so can at least put relegation out of their mind, their battle with Sale and Wasps will be worth watching as seventh place is probably the best they will be able to do.

Sale Sharks

Last season; Tenth.
Sale should have no reason to look behind them this season and might be able to spare a thought for sixth place but they are likely to spend this season consolidating their position in the mid table. Steve Diamond will hopefully be able to put all his energy into the rugby this season after last season’s debacle of three different men being Director of Rugby and Diamond’s time being split between the boardroom and the pitch. No big signings this season hopefully mean Sale will stop thinking “Northern Super Club” and start thinking results. Cipriani is there only real game changer but there is quality enough through the squad to challenge any side as highlighted by Sale’s dominance at Kingsholm in the season opener.

Newcastle

Last season; Promoted from Championship.
I have gone for Newcastle in tenth for three reasons, one; the winning mentality Dean Richards has instilled in this squad mean wins will quickly turn into a run of games. If it does come down to a scrap the recruitment of experienced top flight players and a grizzled pack should offer enough grunt to see them through and lastly; Kingston Park, their secret weapon. After a long journey North to them be greeted by a hostile crowd and even more hostile weather is a banana skin for a lot of teams. If Newcastle can keep picking up points then the spirit in the squad will see them pull away, if not, they just need to keep the faith as there is probably just enough in this squad to see them safe in a slug out at the bottom.

Worcester Warriors

Last season; Eleventh.
Dean Ryan has told Warriors fans he needs three to four years to achieve real success at the club. He has started as well as he can, Jonathon Thomas is a man who will fight to the end, combined with his experience he will be a brilliant captain. The pack looks surprisingly weak, an area they could at times rely on in the past. Ryan will ensure the Warriors are combative and competitive, it will probably come down to a scrap at the latter end of the season and they should just have the strength to pull through that and survive. I wouldn’t be confident of survival if I was a Warriors fan, but I wouldn’t be too worried either.

London Irish

Last season; Ninth.
It will be London Irish or Newcastle relegated. If it comes down to the last quarter of the season, a real tooth and nail fight for every point then I cannot see London Irish having the grit to see it out. Confidence seems low; the quality of the players coming in is leaving a big short fall when you look at whose left. It’s never a good sign when a club can’t hang onto its young talent and the Madjeski stadium just doesn’t have the fear factor that Kingston Park has. Fans need to be prepared for a tough season, they need early wins, go back to their roots of free flowing attacking play and pick up points quickly. They just do not have the firepower for a fight to the death.