World Rugby U20s: Knockouts

After three rounds of matches, the pool stage of the World Rugby U20 Championship came to a thrilling conclusion on Thursday.

New Zealand and England kept up their 100% records with wins over Ireland and Australia, securing 1^st and 2^nd seeds respectively. New Zealand will now take on France in their semi-final, whilst England will go head-to-head with South Africa, with all four teams undefeated in group stage play.

Australia slip into the second tier thanks to their last-minute loss to England and will take on an Italian side that has surprised many with the level of its play. The winner of that encounter will take on the victor from the playoff between Six Nations rivals Scotland and Wales.

An injury-riddled campaign has seen Ireland lose all three of their group games and they now face off with Samoa, whilst Argentina take on hosts Georgia. The losers of those two games will compete with one another to see who is relegated to the Junior World Trophy next year.

We take a look at those six upcoming games and preview the potential final round matches of this year’s competition.

Third Tier

Ireland vs Samoa

The Irish will go into this match as favourites, but not by much. Samoa were routed in the first round by England and struggled against Wales in their most recent encounter, but sandwiched between those two heavy losses was a very competitive and close defeat to Australia. The Islanders have shown they have the ability to go toe-to-toe with the bigger, more established countries at this level, albeit inconsistently, and if they can get everything to click on Tuesday, they will fancy themselves to take the scalp of Ireland.

As for the men in green, the ever-growing list of injuries they are having to deal with provides mitigating circumstances for their performances this year, but they now face the very real, not to mention damaging, prospect of relegation. If they lean heavily on their set-piece and try to control the territorial battle with their kicking game, they should emerge victorious from this contest, but Samoa have the power runners to hurt Ireland’s very fragile defence.

Argentina vs Georgia

It’s been a poor tournament for Argentina, who have failed to build on their impressive third-place finish last year, and it reached a low point when they were crushed 72-14 by South Africa in the last round of pool matches. They have already beaten Georgia in the pool stage, however, and that will give them some measure of confidence they need going into the playoffs.

Georgia have caught the eye with their ambition and willingness to play in the back line, but that has not translated to results or an ability to be competitive for 80 minutes. They have been an asset to the tournament and their fans have delivered a great atmosphere in Tbilisi and Kutaisi, but their match with Argentina will likely be a bridge too far for the Junior Lelos. They will certainly need their fans to act as their 16^th man on Tuesday.

Second Tier

Australia vs Italy

Australia were extremely unlucky to miss out on a place in the semi-finals, with a Max Malins penalty and a Zach Mercer turnover consigning them to the narrowest of defeats. They have had their best tournament in several years and should be confident of winning both their matches in the second tier playoffs and securing a fifth-place finish.

Italy have certainly been the surprise package of the tournament and their win over Ireland in their opening game will be remembered for a long time. It’s hard to see them pulling off a result against a strong Australian side, but if it does come, it will likely be the result of impressive forward work from captain Marco Riccioni and talismanic N8 Giovanni Licata.

Scotland vs Wales

It’s been another promising tournament for Scotland, beating Ireland and Italy, but one where they have just lacked the requisite extra bit of talent to put them in the mix for the semi-finals. The back three of Darcy Graham, Robbie Nairn and Blair Kinghorn has been in fine form and it is in their counter-attacking and threat out wide that Scotland have found the most joy these last couple of weeks. If they can move the big Welsh pack around, they will have a good chance of emerging victorious on Tuesday.

Losses to Australia and England ultimately mean that this tournament will go down as a disappointment for Wales, but with so many young players involved in their squad and eligible to return next year, a strong finish will give Wales something tangible to take into the second year of their development cycle. Ryan Conbeer will fancy himself against the vaunted back three of Scotland, whilst they should also have the advantage up front, with a powerful front row continuing to deliver throughout this tournament.

First Tier

England vs South Africa

The wheels have come somewhat off for England since the floodlights failed just before half time in their game against Wales. They may have gone on to win that game and then beat Australia four days later, but there has been a noticeable lack of accuracy since that moment. It’s been a case of England gritting it out and proving their resilience, rather than forcing their own gameplan upon their opponents, as they usually do. They will have to find a way to get back to something near their best if they are to make it yet another U20 final, as South Africa have been growing as the tournament goes on and pose a very real threat.

The likes of Curwin Bosch, Mannie Libbok and Damian Willemse have all stepped up their play of late and, behind a traditionally strong South African pack, are leading a dangerous back line that will be able to cause England plenty of problems. England are not an opposition that the Baby Boks have had much luck against in recent years, but this may be the most talented crop South Africa have produced in quite some time, so it promises to be a fascinating encounter.

New Zealand vs France

The Baby Blacks have been in fine form this championship and just like South Africa, they have improved with each game they have played. The set-piece is an Achilles’ heel and they will struggle to live with France in that area, but they have power runners and the incision in their back line to win the collisions and break the gain-line without the platform of a well-drilled tight five.

As for France, they have been a more balanced side in the pool stage, but they have yet to play a team with the kind of attacking firepower that New Zealand have at their disposal. They will need to take an early lead and then try to squeeze the Kiwis, as they will struggle to play from behind, especially with their conditioning not comparing favourably to New Zealand’s.

Predictions

Final – New Zealand vs England

3^rd/4^th – France vs South Africa

5^th/6^th – Australia vs Wales

7^th/8^th – Italy vs Scotland

9^th/10^th – Ireland vs Argentina

Relegation playoff – Samoa vs Georgia