Japan's long wait for a Rugby World Cup win continued after a comprehensive defeat by Tonga last Wednesday, and they are up against it again on Tuesday evening as they face a clued-up and confident Canada.
Strangely enough the closest the Pacific Nations Cup champions have come to a World Cup victory in the last five tournaments was when they drew 12-12 with tomorrow's opponents four years ago in Bordeaux. A fact to boost the dwindling spirit of Japanese supporters even further - the last two meetings between the sides have gone the way of the Cherry Blossoms, who dispatched the Canucks in home encounters ending 46-8 and 27-6 in Tokyo in 2009. This can be of some comfort to John Kirwan's men, but, to bring them crashing back down to earth, they had also previously gone unbeaten in five games with Tonga before being dismantled by the South Sea Islanders in Whangarei last week; and so will be approaching this game with caution.
Canada will rightly go into the tie with morale and expectations super-high after proving their worth with victory over Tonga in their opening fixture and keeping up with France for the majority of a compelling encounter in Napier. With the likes of Aaron Carpenter and Adam Kleeburger putting themselves about well in the pack and at the breakdown - much to the annoyance of their opponents - and fly-half Ander Monro controlling superbly at stand-off, not many punters will be likely to bet against the Canucks in this one.
Kieran Crawley's team have illustrated their determination to last the pace for the full 80 minutes against Japan - who themselves had impressed for an hour in their match with Les Bleus. Flanker Kleeburger has impressed upon the fact that his side have to concentrate on "keeping the mindset towards the end of the game", and whichever set of XV does that most effectively will probably come out on top.
Canada make just the one change to their starting line-up; fit again Matt Evans returning to the right wing with Ciaran Hearn dropping out of the match-day 22 altogether. Glasgow wing DTH van der Merwe continues a burgeoning centre partnership with Ryan Smith who chalks up a half-century of international caps with this appearance against the Cherry Blossoms.
For Japan it is now or never, with the team displaying plenty of go-forward and endeavour but ending up with worryingly little to show for all of their hard work.
A lack of composure and cutting edge has been their downfall so far, and an end of term report card for the team might read 'brave but blunt'. It is a harsh verdict for a side so desperate to show they belong in the same sporting environment as the likes of New Zealand, South Africa and France, but such is the reality when contesting on the global stage and Japan's sparsity in depth of real talent means that they are still some way off realistically competing with major rugby nations.
In the ranks, there are two changes to the side that disappointed against Tonga. Ironically, the Tongan-born Sione Vatuvei replaces the injured Itaru Taniguchi on the blindside flank, whilst try-scorer last time out Kensuke Hatakeyama is benched in favour of Nozomu Fujita.
Apart from that it is as-you-were for the Brave Blossoms who will give their all in blood, sweat and tears on the McLean Park pitch, but by the time Jonathan Kaplan blows to close the game they may be facing the prospect of having to wait another four years for that elusive World Cup win.
HEAD TO HEAD
Chauncey O'Toole v Michael Leitch: Both foragers have impressed recently and put strong displays in in Pool A. Whoever wins the contest at the breakdown will almost certainly go a long way to influencing which team makes it successfully over the finish line.
PREDICTION
With some encouraging performances and results thus far in the World Cup it is hard to see Canada coming unstuck against a Japan side that looks to have run out of steam and ideas. CANADA BY 10.
Canada: 15 James Pritchard, 14 Matt Evans, 13 DTH van der Merwe, 12 Ryan Smith, 11 Phil Mackenzie, 10 Ander Monro, 9 Ed Fairhurst, 8 Aaron Carpenter, 7 Chauncey O'Toole, 6 Adam Kleeberger, 5 Jamie Cudmore, 4 Jebb Sinclair, 3 Jason Marshall, 2 Pat Riordan (c), 1 Hubert Buydens.
Replacements: 16 Ryan Hamilton, 17 Scott Franklin, 18 Tyler Hotson, 19 Jeremy Kyne, 20 Sean White, 21 Nathan Hirayama, 22 Conor Trainor.
Japan: 15 Shaun Webb, 14 Kosuke Endo, 13 Alisi Tupuailai, 12 Ryan Nicholas, 11 Hirotoki Onozawa, 10 James Arlidge, 9 Fumiaki Tanaka, 8 Takashi Kikutani (c), 7 Michael Leitch, 6 Sione Talikavili Vatuvei, 5 Toshizumi Kitagawa, 4 Luke Thompson, 3 Nozomu Fujita, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Hisateru Hirashima.
Replacements: 16 Yusuke Aoki, 17 Kensuke Hatakeyama, 18 Hitoshi Ono, 19 Toetuu Taufa, 20 Atsushi Hiwasa, 21 Murray Williams, 22 Bryce Robins.
