Hopes high for Samoa come RWC

After their fine display against the All Blacks in Apia last weekend, attention now turns for Samoa to the upcoming Rugby World Cup.

The All Blacks may have been shorn of some of their star players who were still recovering from the Super Rugby final, but that should take nothing away from Manu Samoa’s spirited performance, one which begs the question of just how far can they go at the RWC?

They will prepare for the tournament by taking part in the Pacific Nations Cup in the US over the next month, where they will take on the USA, Fiji and Canada in their allocated fixtures. Both Japan and Tonga are also taking part in the tournament and could play Samoa in the final round of fixtures which will decide every sides’ final positions.

If Samoa can emerge from those games with their fitness and chemistry both at the required levels, then they will enter their RWC pool, which also boasts South Africa, Scotland, Japan and the USA, with every chance of qualifying for the knockout rounds.

The islanders will start against the USA, who Samoa should know well from the Pacific Nations Cup campaign, and though the Eagles should provide an earnest challenge, they are a team Samoa will expect to beat. A tough task against South Africa follows, before a return to another foe Samoa should know well from the Pacific Nations Cup, Japan.

On paper, this potentially creates a fascinating, winner-takes-all clash with Scotland at the conclusion of Pool B. A runners-up spot in the group would be enough to secure a place in the quarter-finals and will, barring an earlier upset, see the two sides battle it out to emerge from the group alongside likely winners, South Africa.

One positive for Samoa is that a six day turnaround, from their opener against the USA to their match with South Africa, is the shortest they will experience in the group. Their following games against Japan and Scotland all come after full seven day turnarounds, something which has not always been the case for Samoa at RWCs.

The core of the Samoan side will be made up by the players who took on New Zealand last week, but the likes of Alapati Leiua and George Pisi could yet add some incision to their back line and should, fitness-permitting, feature at the RWC for the islanders. Tighthead prop James Johnston would also be a big boon for the Samoan pack if available.

With all but four of the current Samoa squad playing their club rugby in the northern hemisphere, conditions are unlikely to cause any of the squad to falter and their physical style could cause Scotland plenty of problems at St James Park on October 10^th.

The Samoan scrum was attacked by New Zealand with a fair amount of success last week and it’s an area head coach Stephen Betham will need to work on, as is their tactical kicking, which was loose against the All Blacks. That said, with over a month together and four games ahead, there are plenty of opportunities for Samoa to work out the kinks before the tournament begins.

If they can beat Scotland and qualify as runners-up from Pool B, they’ll take on the winners of Pool A, which should be one of England, Australia or Wales. It’s difficult to see Samoa progressing to the semi-finals with those prospective opponents awaiting them at the quarter-final stage, but stranger things have happened in knockout rugby.

With a good preparation period ahead of them and perhaps the most favourable RWC schedule they have ever been given, Samoa should be optimistic heading into the competition, not least so because of their sterling run out in Apia last week.